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Prediction markets for Philo

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

45%chance

6012466

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1187

785

Will Contrapoints release a video about Philosophy Tube before the end of 2026?

Mar 26, 3:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.31%chance

4611234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9696

1267

Will philosophers accept or lean towards consequentialism once a consensus on normative ethics is reached?

Mar 17, 12:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

46.24%chance

747641

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1226

1131

Will philosophy be solved before 2123?

Mar 26, 1:05 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

18.74%chance

516162

OptionVotes

NO

YES

979

953

Will AI create philosophy before 2030?

Dec 28, 10:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.88%chance

755729

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2853

698

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

May 29, 12:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62.73%chance

514506

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1297

771

By the beginning of 2035, will physicists and philosophers mostly agree on the correct interpretation of quantum mechanics?

Nov 26, 3:36 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

10.02%chance

382331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1444

947

Will philosophers accept or lean towards virtue ethics once a consensus on normative ethics is reached?

Mar 17, 12:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.07%chance

271900

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1122

858

Will the percentage of philosophers identifying as religious in the next PhilPapers Survey decrease?

Apr 13, 3:53 AMMar 16, 10:59 AM

81.59%chance

431354

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1403

843

Will "Anthropic, and taking "technical philosophy" ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 1, 3:41 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

20.35%chance

6308

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1065

679

Will I hear of anyone in the US or Canada placed under an involuntary psychiatric hold for talking about suicide from a philosophical perspective?

Nov 18, 2:21 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

18.9%chance

14273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1081

966

Will "Video games are philosophy's playground" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 18, 10:05 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.67%chance

3124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1104

984

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