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Prediction markets for Physical Intelligence

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Nov 10, 6:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

60.47%chance

19242620

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10568

9573

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59.44%chance

12638679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12739

8335

Will strong evidence of aliens be discovered before 2030?

May 24, 1:02 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.16%chance

14221156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3409

1711

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Mar 12, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9521022

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2035+

2029

2030

2031

2032

2026

2033

2034

2025

24

21

13

11

10

8

5

3

3

2

0

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.5%chance

246554

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3092

324

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

685340

OptionProbability

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

Anthropic

OpenAI/Microsoft

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

29

27

22

8

7

5

2

0

Will there be any significant technological developments after 2100?

Nov 28, 8:52 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

91.88%chance

364548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2436

734

Has at least one alien been to Earth?

May 30, 4:26 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

21.91%chance

353877

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

976

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?

Aug 31, 6:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.18%chance

101345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1486

673

Will intelligent physical sexbots be banned or otherwise made illegal to possess or use in the United States by 2100?

Jun 30, 5:35 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

21.52%chance

10232

OptionVotes

YES

NO

240

189

Does the laws of physics in our universe tend to favor the emergence of humanoid intelligent liveforms (terrestrial) ?

Apr 21, 7:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30.8%chance

7120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

279

181

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