Physical Intelligence News

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Nov 10, 6:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

59.9%chance

19242525

OptionVotes

YES

10424

9668

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.44%chance

12337037

OptionVotes

YES

14083

6658

Will strong evidence of aliens be discovered before 2030?

May 24, 1:02 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10%chance

14221056

OptionVotes

YES

3458

1706

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

655171

OptionProbability

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

OpenAI/Microsoft

Anthropic

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

Will there be any significant technological developments after 2100?

Nov 28, 8:52 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

91.88%chance

364548

OptionVotes

YES

2436

734

Has at least one alien been to Earth?

May 30, 4:26 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

21.91%chance

353877

OptionVotes

YES

1005

976

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

YES

1720

680

What will be true about The Super Mario Galaxy Movie? [Add Answers!]

Nov 10, 3:19 PMNov 11, 3:18 PM

212376

OptionProbability

Yoshi's voice in the English version is >50% grunts/yells/screams/etc original to the movie

Bowser is at his ordinary size (no Mini Mushroom or giant form) for at least 35 minutes of runtime

Beach bowl galaxy is featured

Released in the United States on April 3, 2026

Yoshi's voice in the English version is >50% reused audio from the games

Yoshi's voice in the English version is >50% real words

The word "delve" (or variants) is spoken

Donkey Kong physically appears and says an intelligible word

The words "sunshine" and/or "odyssey/ies" are spoken

Someone will climb onto Honey Queen and scratch her back

100

Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?

Aug 31, 6:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.18%chance

101345

OptionVotes

YES

1486

673

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.71%chance

161055

OptionVotes

YES

1374

730

Will intelligent physical sexbots be banned or otherwise made illegal to possess or use in the United States by 2100?

Jun 30, 5:35 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

21.52%chance

10232

OptionVotes

YES

240

189

Does the laws of physics in our universe tend to favor the emergence of humanoid intelligent liveforms (terrestrial) ?

Apr 21, 7:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30.8%chance

7120

OptionVotes

YES

279

181

Physical Intelligence News

Prediction markets for Physical Intelligence

Prediction markets for Physical Intelligence

Prediction markets for Physical Intelligence

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Will strong evidence of aliens be discovered before 2030?

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Will there be any significant technological developments after 2100?

Has at least one alien been to Earth?

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

What will be true about The Super Mario Galaxy Movie? [Add Answers!]

Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Will intelligent physical sexbots be banned or otherwise made illegal to possess or use in the United States by 2100?

Does the laws of physics in our universe tend to favor the emergence of humanoid intelligent liveforms (terrestrial) ?

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