Physical Intelligence News

5. Multiple serious efforts to put AI data centers in space will take shape.

Dec 27, 8:16 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

77%chance

13260154

OptionVotes

YES

1830

547

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Nov 10, 6:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

65.64%chance

18239535

OptionVotes

YES

12025

8721

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

65.54%chance

10522711

OptionVotes

YES

11746

9972

Will strong evidence of aliens be discovered before 2030?

May 24, 1:02 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.11%chance

14018007

OptionVotes

YES

2694

1804

Will Extropic be found to be fraudulent by 2026?

May 18, 1:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8%chance

6016771

OptionVotes

YES

3391

295

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

604670

OptionProbability

OpenAI/Microsoft

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

Anthropic

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

2. Scaling laws will be discovered and exploited in areas beyond text—in particular, in robotics and biology.

Dec 27, 8:12 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

76.79%chance

153118

OptionVotes

YES

1819

550

Is 'Neuro-Cognitive Friction' the primary Great Filter stopping multi-planetary expansion?

Nov 24, 7:07 PMDec 31, 6:28 PM

60.39%chance

71533

OptionVotes

YES

1235

810

Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?

Aug 31, 6:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.77%chance

101304

OptionVotes

YES

1401

714

What will be true about The Super Mario Galaxy Movie? [Add Answers!]

Nov 10, 3:19 PMNov 11, 3:18 PM

11269

OptionProbability

Released in the United States on April 3, 2026

Bowser is at his ordinary size (no Mini Mushroom or giant form) for at least 35 minutes of runtime

Donkey Kong physically appears and says an intelligible word

Yoshi's voice in the English version is >50% grunts/yells/screams/etc original to the movie

Yoshi's voice in the English version is >50% real words

The word "delve" (or variants) is spoken

Yoshi's voice in the English version is >50% reused audio from the games

Will intelligent physical sexbots be banned or otherwise made illegal to possess or use in the United States by 2100?

Jun 30, 5:35 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

21.52%chance

10232

OptionVotes

YES

240

189

Does the laws of physics in our universe tend to favor the emergence of humanoid intelligent liveforms (terrestrial) ?

Apr 21, 7:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30.8%chance

7120

OptionVotes

YES

279

181

Physical Intelligence News

Prediction markets for Physical Intelligence

Prediction markets for Physical Intelligence

Prediction markets for Physical Intelligence

5. Multiple serious efforts to put AI data centers in space will take shape.

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Will strong evidence of aliens be discovered before 2030?

Will Extropic be found to be fraudulent by 2026?

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

2. Scaling laws will be discovered and exploited in areas beyond text—in particular, in robotics and biology.

Is 'Neuro-Cognitive Friction' the primary Great Filter stopping multi-planetary expansion?

Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?

What will be true about The Super Mario Galaxy Movie? [Add Answers!]

Will intelligent physical sexbots be banned or otherwise made illegal to possess or use in the United States by 2100?

Does the laws of physics in our universe tend to favor the emergence of humanoid intelligent liveforms (terrestrial) ?

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