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Will Extropic be found to be fraudulent by 2026?

May 18, 1:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8%chance

6016771

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3391

295

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

604670

OptionProbability

OpenAI/Microsoft

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

Anthropic

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

29

24

12

10

10

9

6

1

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Which space application will first use 1 MWe?

Sep 20, 12:35 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

92097

OptionProbability

Cryptocurrency mining

Hosted data center

Reflected sunlight

Manufacturing

Beamed power

35

28

23

9

5

Will I touch a “2025” penny in 2025?

Feb 10, 7:02 PMJan 1, 8:05 AM

49.18%chance

151927

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

984

Will I touch a “2026” penny in 2026?

Feb 10, 7:57 PMJan 1, 8:05 AM

22.75%chance

111111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1843

543

Will I use VR computer monitors for 25%+ of my work screentime by 2027?

Nov 4, 3:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.12%chance

27990

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

884

Is solving fusion harder than finding a room temperature superconductor?

Feb 6, 3:59 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

25.46%chance

31825

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1038

812

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

Mar 26, 12:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15%chance

15782

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1675

819

Kindle+LLM+audio readout combination product is available from Amazon by mid 2027

Dec 16, 5:23 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

40.61%chance

17410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1009

991

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

Will we develop a commercial computer to brain interface by 2028?

Aug 1, 7:24 AMJan 1, 2:59 PM

48.67%chance

13292

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1067

927

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