Physical Production News

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

655171

OptionProbability

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

OpenAI/Microsoft

Anthropic

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.89%chance

253805

OptionVotes

YES

1088

922

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

YES

1720

680

Will I touch a “2026” penny in 2026?

Feb 10, 7:57 PMJan 1, 8:05 AM

12.32%chance

141936

OptionVotes

YES

2668

375

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.71%chance

161055

OptionVotes

YES

1374

730

Will I use VR computer monitors for 25%+ of my work screentime by 2027?

Nov 4, 3:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.12%chance

27990

OptionVotes

YES

1123

884

Is solving fusion harder than finding a room temperature superconductor?

Feb 6, 3:59 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

25.46%chance

31825

OptionVotes

YES

1038

812

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

Mar 26, 12:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15%chance

15782

OptionVotes

YES

1675

819

Kindle+LLM+audio readout combination product is available from Amazon by mid 2027

Dec 16, 5:23 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

38.74%chance

17460

OptionVotes

YES

1116

1014

Will there be a new Pokemon Pinball game before March 2029? [multiple choice]

Dec 12, 9:00 PMMar 2, 7:59 AM

3436

OptionProbability

Yes, an officially licensed physical pinball machine.

Yes, a remake.

Yes, an official game for mobile phones.

Yes, a pinball minigame in a minigame collection

Yes, a full fledged non-phone non-remake new release.

100

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

YES

1081

928

Will we develop a commercial computer to brain interface by 2028?

Aug 1, 7:24 AMJan 1, 2:59 PM

48.67%chance

13292

OptionVotes

YES

1067

927

Physical Production News

Prediction markets for Physical Production

Prediction markets for Physical Production

Prediction markets for Physical Production

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Will I touch a “2026” penny in 2026?

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Will I use VR computer monitors for 25%+ of my work screentime by 2027?

Is solving fusion harder than finding a room temperature superconductor?

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

Kindle+LLM+audio readout combination product is available from Amazon by mid 2027

Will there be a new Pokemon Pinball game before March 2029? [multiple choice]

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Will we develop a commercial computer to brain interface by 2028?

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