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Prediction markets for PIL

Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]

Aug 2, 10:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

22.32%chance

48290606

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7778

4822

FDA approves YCT-529 male birth control pill before 2035?

Jul 1, 5:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24%chance

68682

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17795

5620

Conditional on Republican trifecta: will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of December 2026?

Dec 16, 2:30 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8.99%chance

293990

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3149

368

Will Artificial Intelligence pilot an aircraft with human passengers completely autonomously before 2030?

Jul 8, 1:06 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

56.72%chance

673627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

981

GPUs "piling up" by the end of the year?

Feb 5, 9:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.93%chance

183492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3012

332

Will the leader of a nonwestern nuclear power make an extremely ASI-pilled public statement before 2031?

Jan 12, 8:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.15%chance

213277

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2222

450

Will a video on Youtube break the current record for most viewed independent animation pilot before Jan 1st 2027?

Dec 1, 9:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12.82%chance

201726

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2495

231

Will any US state ban the morning after pill before the end of 2030?

Feb 22, 6:55 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

55.83%chance

301494

OptionVotes

NO

YES

973

167

Will it be possible to operate Tesla 2nd gen roadster off the ground in public without a pilots licence?

Oct 16, 1:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.44%chance

15751

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1477

677

Will EASA allow Single-Pilot-Operations of Commercial Airliners until the end of 2030?

Aug 28, 11:54 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7%chance

10629

OptionVotes

YES

NO

462

31

Will the commercial pilot shortage end before the end of 2030?

Nov 26, 10:57 PMJan 1, 5:01 AM

65.32%chance

426

OptionVotes

NO

YES

134

93

Will "Curing PMS with Hair Loss Pills" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 29, 10:41 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.16%chance

224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

989

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