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Prediction markets for PIL

Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]

Aug 2, 10:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

24%chance

48090112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7294

4968

Will Zohran be Abundance-pilled in his first year as mayor?

Oct 2, 2:34 AMJan 2, 3:31 AM

49.93%chance

199346

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10014

9986

FDA approves YCT-529 male birth control pill before 2035?

Jul 1, 5:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.6%chance

64322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13448

7436

Conditional on Republican trifecta: will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of December 2026?

Dec 16, 2:30 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8.99%chance

293990

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3149

368

When will the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 be approved by the FDA?

Aug 3, 7:22 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

453989

OptionProbability

Not by the end of 2030

2027

2028

2025

2029

2026

2030

2024

2023

63

20

5

4

3

2

2

1

0

Will Artificial Intelligence pilot an aircraft with human passengers completely autonomously before 2030?

Jul 8, 1:06 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

57.3%chance

663617

OptionVotes

NO

YES

994

993

Will any US state ban the morning after pill before the end of 2030?

Feb 22, 6:55 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

67.73%chance

281437

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1065

110

Which DoE Reactor Pilot Program reactors will achieve criticality by 2026-07-04?

Aug 13, 10:38 PMJul 8, 11:59 PM

4520

OptionProbability

Valar Atomics Inc.

Oklo Inc. (one or both projects)

Aalo Atomics Inc.

Antares Nuclear Inc.

Atomic Alchemy Inc.

Deep Fission Inc.

Last Energy Inc.

Natura Resources LLC

Radiant Industries Inc.

Terrestrial Energy Inc.

Oklo Inc. (both projects)

59

45

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

37

31

Will a video on Youtube break the current record for most viewed independent animation pilot before Jan 1st 2027?

Dec 1, 9:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

51.44%chance

16363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1164

776

Will a Taiwanese armed forces pilot defect to China with their aircraft before 2030?

Dec 12, 2:04 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

23.65%chance

572

OptionVotes

YES

NO

195

98

Will the leader of a nonwestern nuclear power make an extremely ASI-pilled public statement before 2031?

Jan 12, 8:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.61%chance

334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

992

Will "Curing PMS with Hair Loss Pills" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 29, 10:41 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.16%chance

224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

989

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