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Prediction markets for PIL

Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]

Aug 2, 10:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

24.4%chance

47990058

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7184

5003

Will Gary Marcus get AGI-pilled in 2025?

Jan 26, 8:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

1.1%chance

2915322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9482

105

If Trump is elected will the Comstock laws be used to ban the shipping of abortion pills by the end of 2026

Mar 10, 12:26 AMJan 17, 6:59 AM

52.59%chance

256087

OptionVotes

NO

YES

283

271

Will an oral insulin pill be publicly available before the end of 2025?

Dec 20, 9:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.02%chance

304965

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3459

582

Will Zohran be Abundance-pilled in his first year as mayor?

Oct 2, 2:34 AMJan 2, 3:31 AM

31.16%chance

124865

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14865

6727

FDA approves YCT-529 male birth control pill before 2035?

Jul 1, 5:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.3%chance

54272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13540

7386

Conditional on Republican trifecta: will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of December 2026?

Dec 16, 2:30 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9.23%chance

283940

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3099

373

Will Artificial Intelligence pilot an aircraft with human passengers completely autonomously before 2030?

Jul 8, 1:06 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

68.56%chance

653403

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1313

807

Will any US state ban the morning after pill before the end of 2030?

Feb 22, 6:55 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

67.73%chance

281437

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1065

110

Will Pillowfort.social shut down by the end of 2025?

Mar 13, 6:33 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.59%chance

7302

OptionVotes

YES

NO

276

36

Will a video on Youtube break the current record for most viewed independent animation pilot before Jan 1st 2027?

Dec 1, 9:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

63.31%chance

15163

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1047

964

Will "Curing PMS with Hair Loss Pills" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 29, 10:41 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.16%chance

224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

989

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