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Prediction markets for PIL

Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]

Aug 2, 10:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.91%chance

48290236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7317

4961

Will Zohran be Abundance-pilled in his first year as mayor?

Oct 2, 2:34 AMJan 2, 3:31 AM

59.54%chance

3215777

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12130

8244

FDA approves YCT-529 male birth control pill before 2035?

Jul 1, 5:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.6%chance

64322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13448

7436

Conditional on Republican trifecta: will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of December 2026?

Dec 16, 2:30 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8.99%chance

293990

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3149

368

Will Artificial Intelligence pilot an aircraft with human passengers completely autonomously before 2030?

Jul 8, 1:06 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

56.72%chance

673627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

981

GPUs "piling up" by the end of the year?

Feb 5, 9:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.58%chance

173271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2636

379

Will the leader of a nonwestern nuclear power make an extremely ASI-pilled public statement before 2031?

Jan 12, 8:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.3%chance

191801

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

864

Will a video on Youtube break the current record for most viewed independent animation pilot before Jan 1st 2027?

Dec 1, 9:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

14.46%chance

201595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2364

251

Will any US state ban the morning after pill before the end of 2030?

Feb 22, 6:55 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

55.83%chance

301494

OptionVotes

NO

YES

973

167

Which will happen first: AGI, or a pile of sand at my local park being removed?

Mar 24, 8:47 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM

441361

OptionProbability

Pile of sand removed

AGI

78

22

Will I meaningfully choke from eating pills without fluids by 2030?

Nov 10, 3:02 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

24%chance

8171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

165

39

Will "Curing PMS with Hair Loss Pills" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 29, 10:41 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.16%chance

224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

989

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