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Prediction markets for PIN AI

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.58%chance

11228585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1862

538

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Mar 12, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

599478

OptionProbability

2030

2035+

2029

2028

2031

2032

2027

2033

2034

2026

2025

18

17

15

14

8

8

7

7

3

2

1

Will a Jony Ive and Sam Altman collaboration lead to a hardware device intended for consumer use, released before 2030.

Sep 28, 1:58 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

86.58%chance

275033

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2328

593

Will I think OpenAI's first hardware product is a flop?

May 25, 8:34 PMDec 31, 9:32 PM

60.76%chance

271984

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1244

804

[OpenAI Startup Fund] Which ideas will OpenAI invest in as part of Converge Two?

Dec 16, 11:47 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

271223

OptionProbability

AI Infrastructure Hardware (GPUs, TPUs, etc.)

SOTA Text-To-Speech

AI Powered Consumer Device (pins, glasses, speakers, etc.)

AI Language Coach (like Speek)

Non-English SOTA LLM

Legal AI (like Harvey)

AI Speech Coach

AI-Powered Kids Toy

94

81

78

66

54

36

33

31

Total subscriber size of non‑porn AI romance/companionship subreddits on Reddit on Aug 17, 2026

Aug 26, 6:04 AMAug 17, 11:59 PM

5384

OptionProbability

> 500,000

180,001–280,000

280,001–500,000

≤ 180,000

35

25

25

15

When will MKBHD review a product worse than Humane AI pin?

May 1, 8:45 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6160

OptionProbability

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2025

Before 2026

73

68

66

0

0

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