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Prediction markets for PINS

Pink Tide: Will leftists still govern a majority of Latin American countries at the end of 2026?

Dec 4, 2:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24.98%chance

794684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1819

453

Will OpenAI acquire Pinterest by the end of 2026?

Jan 2, 6:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.72%chance

233833

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3457

289

Will Steven Pinker and Scott Alexander have a debate on AI safety in 2026?

Sep 20, 11:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.94%chance

193044

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11767

8498

What will be the most popular way to interact with a portable digital devices in 2030?

Jan 23, 1:24 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

492803

OptionProbability

Touch-screen smartphones

AR/VR glasses

Other technology that WAS already commercialized in 2024

Other technology that was NOT commercialized in 2024

Rabbit-style voice agents

Humane-style pins

Brain computer interfaces

69

22

4

3

1

1

1

What will be the final net IRR for Warburg Pincus Global Growth 14? (X100)

Dec 2, 8:28 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

72.71%chance

112191

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1183

892

Will the Pirates of the Caribbean pinball machine from Jersey Jack pinball be remade before 2034?

Jan 17, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.23%chance

6523

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1356

737

Will Joji (Filthy Frank, Pink Guy) perform publicly wearing the pink bodysuit again before Jan 1st 2030?

Dec 6, 2:54 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

13.84%chance

12250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

950

When will MKBHD review a product worse than Humane AI pin?

May 1, 8:45 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6160

OptionProbability

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2025

Before 2026

73

68

66

0

0

Will "Not Pinning Your OpenRouter Provider Might In..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jul 24, 2:08 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.72%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

985

Will there be a remake of Tommy by The Who using a game other than Pinball announced by the end of 2030?

Aug 3, 4:49 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.65%chance

391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

53

Will Spruce Pine, NC high-purity quartz mining be fully operational on December 31, 2027?

Apr 6, 6:26 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

77.65%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

80

Would allowing users to "pin" chats in the Message tab help users manage P2P loans among other arrangements?

Apr 23, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

90

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