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Prediction markets for Pioneer

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.66%chance

834517250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

59065

10415

Will Katalin Karikó Win a Nobel Prize in 2027?

Aug 31, 6:41 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

6%chance

10752

OptionVotes

YES

NO

551

104

Will Katalin Karikó Win a Nobel Prize in 2026?

Aug 31, 6:39 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4.58%chance

10685

OptionVotes

YES

NO

672

98

Will Michael Levin be awarded the Nobel Prize?

May 27, 5:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.17%chance

3600

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1452

689

Which will be the first Chinese orbital-class reusable rocket stage to land vertically?

Nov 29, 12:31 PMNov 29, 12:26 PM

3169

OptionProbability

Zhuque-3 (LandSpace)

Long March 12A (SAST/CASC)

Long March 10A (CALT/CASC)

Other

Tianlong-3 (Space Pioneer)

Kinetica-2/Lijian-2 (CAS Space)

44

24

9

9

7

7

When will I be able to purchase a self-driving Toyota (or Lexus) in the USA?

Jun 2, 2:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

282

OptionProbability

2027-2028

2029-2030

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

2039-2040

Other

12

12

12

12

12

12

12

12

Electronic Arts Stock

Apr 12, 12:33 AMApr 12, 5:59 AM

215

OptionProbability

YES

NO

75

66

Will LLMs still mostly preserve high ELO rankings of AI safety people at EOY 2028?

Jun 18, 3:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.36%chance

112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

89

Will ocean station pioneer survive by eoy2028

Jun 2, 3:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Which AI pioneer is funniest?

Sep 19, 12:59 PM

60

Which of these AI pioneers has the best cogsec?

Sep 19, 7:00 PM

40

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