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Prediction markets for Pioneer

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

12.63%chance

802467730

OptionVotes

YES

NO

48915

11661

Will another country follow El Salvador in adopting Bitcoin as legal tender by the end of 2025?

May 13, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17.33%chance

212460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2204

414

Will there be a Pioneer Horizons set by end of 2025?

Jan 2, 4:20 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.29%chance

51070

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1400

143

Will Katalin Karikó Win a Nobel Prize in 2027?

Aug 31, 6:41 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5.37%chance

9718

OptionVotes

YES

NO

602

101

Who will win the 2026 Science Olympiad National Tournament [Division C]?

Nov 27, 8:09 PMMay 23, 10:59 PM

3702

OptionProbability

Monta Vista H.S. (Cupertino, CA)

Troy H.S. (Fullerton, CA)

Seven Lakes H.S. (Katy, TX)

Mason H.S. (Mason, OH)

Solon H.S. (Solon, OH)

Harriton H.S. (Rosemont, PA)

Montgomery H.S. (Skillman, NJ)

New Trier H.S. (Winnetka, IL)

Madison West H.S. (Madison, WI)

Lexington H.S. (Lexington, MA)

Acton-Boxborough Regional H.S. (Acton, MA)

Mountain View H.S. (Mountain View, CA)

Other

Marquette University H.S. (Milwaukee, WI)

'Iolani School (Honolulu, HI)

Novi H.S. (Novi, MI)

Pioneer H.S. (Ann Arbor, MI)

Liberal Arts and Science Academy (Austin, TX)

Castro Valley H.S. (Castro Valley, CA)

West Windsor-Plainsboro H.S. South (West Windsor, NJ)

23

20

14

13

11

8

3

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Katalin Karikó Win a Nobel Prize in 2026?

Aug 31, 6:39 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4.4%chance

9684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

693

97

Which will be the first Chinese orbital-class reusable rocket stage to land vertically?

Nov 29, 12:31 PMNov 29, 12:26 PM

385

OptionProbability

Zhuque-3 (LandSpace)

Long March 12A (SAST/CASC)

Tianlong-3 (Space Pioneer)

Kinetica-2/Lijian-2 (CAS Space)

Other

59

15

9

9

9

Electronic Arts Stock

Apr 12, 12:33 AMApr 12, 5:59 AM

110

OptionProbability

NO

YES

70

70

Which AI pioneer is funniest?

Sep 19, 12:59 PM

50

Which of these AI pioneers has the best cogsec?

Sep 19, 7:00 PM

40

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