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Prediction markets for Pioneer

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

5.21%chance

858583544

OptionVotes

YES

NO

89425

8110

Will Katalin Karikó Win a Nobel Prize in 2026?

Aug 31, 6:39 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

1%chance

122184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2171

67

Will Michael Levin be awarded the Nobel Prize?

May 27, 5:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36%chance

61081

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1333

750

Will Katalin Karikó Win a Nobel Prize in 2027?

Aug 31, 6:41 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

6%chance

10752

OptionVotes

YES

NO

551

104

When will I be able to purchase a self-driving Toyota (or Lexus) in the USA?

Jun 2, 2:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4142

OptionProbability

2031-2032

2033-2034

2029-2030

2035-2036

2037-2038

2039-2040

2027-2028

Other

16

16

13

13

13

11

10

10

Will ocean station pioneer survive by eoy2028

Jun 2, 3:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81.37%chance

2132

OptionVotes

NO

YES

209

48

Will University of North Carolina researcher Bryan Roth win the Nobel Prize for his DREADDs research?

Aug 24, 7:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37%chance

130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Transparency into any useful internal pattern in LLM by EOY 20XY whose semantics was unfamiliar to AI & cog sci in 20NN?

Oct 23, 1:34 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

422

OptionProbability

By 2036... In 2006

By 2030... In 2006

By 2028... in 2008

By 2028... in 2006

72

59

50

50

Electronic Arts Stock

Apr 12, 12:33 AMApr 12, 5:59 AM

215

OptionProbability

YES

NO

75

66

Will LLMs still mostly preserve high ELO rankings of AI safety people at EOY 2028?

Jun 18, 3:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.36%chance

112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

89

Which AI pioneer is funniest?

Sep 19, 12:59 PM

60

Which of these AI pioneers has the best cogsec?

Sep 19, 7:00 PM

40

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