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Israeli Forces Raid Multiple West Bank Towns, Detain Birzeit Student, Amid Settler Attacks and Syrian Settlement Attempt
Authors
6
1 day ago
Prediction markets for Pioneers
Prediction markets for Pioneers
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PM
Feb 1, 7:59 AM
19.85%
chance
796
429524
Option
Votes
YES
NO
34977
14290
Will Katalin Karikó Win a Nobel Prize in 2025?
Aug 31, 6:37 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
1.14%
chance
12
2868
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1798
76
Will there be a Pioneer Horizons set by end of 2025?
Jan 2, 4:20 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
5.29%
chance
5
1070
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1400
143
Will another country follow El Salvador in adopting Bitcoin as legal tender by the end of 2025?
May 13, 3:00 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
64.82%
chance
15
960
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1303
788
Will Katalin Karikó Win a Nobel Prize in 2027?
Aug 31, 6:41 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
5.37%
chance
9
718
Option
Votes
YES
NO
602
101
Will Katalin Karikó Win a Nobel Prize in 2026?
Aug 31, 6:39 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
4.4%
chance
9
684
Option
Votes
YES
NO
693
97
Electronic Arts Stock
Apr 12, 12:33 AM
Apr 12, 5:59 AM
1
10
Option
Probability
NO
YES
70
70
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