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Prediction markets for Pivotal

Will carbon removal be pivotal in mitigating climate change?

Jun 16, 2:20 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

67.7%chance

29334058

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3948

3188

Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?

Mar 14, 11:02 PMMar 14, 11:59 PM

70.03%chance

722785

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1725

976

Who/what will have done a "right wing pivot" before 2027?

Feb 26, 5:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30782

OptionProbability

The Washington Post

Neil Gaiman

Sam Bankman-Fried

CBS News

Gavin Newsom

CNN

Drake

Ezra Klein

John Fetterman

MrBeast

Sam Altman

Disney

Manifold

MSNOW (formerly MSNBC)

The Papacy

Taylor Lorenz

Bluesky

Contrapoints (Natalie Wynn)

Jon Stewart

Taylor Swift

78

65

58

50

47

46

45

45

42

41

41

40

32

27

19

17

12

12

9

9

Is there a "pivotal weak act"?

Mar 4, 3:55 AMMar 5, 4:59 AM

14.14%chance

18550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1317

909

[Vote with your Mana] What are some good alternatives to the pivot? [Add Responses]

Apr 25, 3:12 PMDec 18, 4:59 AM

6345

OptionProbability

Keep Manifold as is, adjust exchange rate for charity as necessary

A large bounty competition for alternatives where the users jointly brainstorm ideas

73

54

"The Pivot" Stock

Apr 19, 3:05 AM

10326

OptionProbability

YES

NO

147

68

By 2029, will the U.S. UBI debate pivot toward a UBC/S (Universal Basic Commodities / Services) model?

Jun 9, 3:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.76%chance

7253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

78

OpenAI's for-profit pivot intentionally designed to provoke AGI governance debate before AGI?

May 8, 6:48 PMDec 31, 6:47 PM

10.31%chance

6195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

295

34

Does the pivotal act that Yudkowsky had in mind involve the bioengineering of a contagious disease?

Jun 6, 7:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11%chance

7189

OptionVotes

YES

NO

298

107

Will Democrats (2028 Election) pivot to pro-growth Abundance Policies (Ezra Klein + Derek Thompson) 🇺🇸🦾🤑🦅🏗️🏛️

Mar 6, 3:41 AMNov 30, 12:59 PM

47.29%chance

9169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

95

Will the breakthrough(s) mentioned in the OpenAI board letter go to history as a pivotal step on the path to AGI?

Nov 23, 11:05 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

56.44%chance

7132

OptionVotes

NO

YES

169

81

How many Re Pivots will happen in 2026?

Jan 19, 2:17 PMDec 31, 2:15 PM

40%chance

347

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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