Pivotal News

Will carbon removal be pivotal in mitigating climate change?

Jun 16, 2:20 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

66.92%chance

29334138

OptionVotes

YES

3987

3107

Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?

Mar 14, 11:02 PMMar 14, 11:59 PM

70.03%chance

722785

OptionVotes

YES

1725

976

Who/what will have done a "right wing pivot" before 2027?

Feb 26, 5:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30782

OptionProbability

The Washington Post

Neil Gaiman

Sam Bankman-Fried

CBS News

Gavin Newsom

CNN

Drake

Ezra Klein

John Fetterman

MrBeast

Sam Altman

Disney

Manifold

MSNOW (formerly MSNBC)

The Papacy

Taylor Lorenz

Bluesky

Contrapoints (Natalie Wynn)

Jon Stewart

Taylor Swift

Is there a "pivotal weak act"?

Mar 4, 3:55 AMMar 9, 4:59 AM

14.77%chance

20566

OptionVotes

YES

1264

918

[Vote with your Mana] What are some good alternatives to the pivot? [Add Responses]

Apr 25, 3:12 PMDec 18, 4:59 AM

6345

OptionProbability

Keep Manifold as is, adjust exchange rate for charity as necessary

A large bounty competition for alternatives where the users jointly brainstorm ideas

What will be true of Manifold's next Pivot?

Feb 7, 8:49 PMDec 31, 8:07 PM

12333

OptionProbability

Involves converting mana to charitable donations

Involves any real-money (that's integral to it, not like buying mana)

New model is very similar to sweepstakes

Involves crypto

New play-money currency

It replaces mana

Involves cashing out mana

Prediction markets for Pivotal

Prediction markets for Pivotal

Prediction markets for Pivotal

Will carbon removal be pivotal in mitigating climate change?

Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?

Who/what will have done a "right wing pivot" before 2027?

Is there a "pivotal weak act"?

[Vote with your Mana] What are some good alternatives to the pivot? [Add Responses]

What will be true of Manifold's next Pivot?

"The Pivot" Stock

By 2029, will the U.S. UBI debate pivot toward a UBC/S (Universal Basic Commodities / Services) model?

OpenAI's for-profit pivot intentionally designed to provoke AGI governance debate before AGI?

Will Democrats (2028 Election) pivot to pro-growth Abundance Policies (Ezra Klein + Derek Thompson) 🇺🇸🦾🤑🦅🏗️🏛️

Will the breakthrough(s) mentioned in the OpenAI board letter go to history as a pivotal step on the path to AGI?

How many Re Pivots will happen in 2026?

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