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Prediction markets for Pivotal

Will carbon removal be pivotal in mitigating climate change?

Jun 16, 2:20 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

67.18%chance

29434211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3974

3134

Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?

Mar 14, 11:02 PMMar 14, 11:59 PM

71.04%chance

742947

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1774

956

How many chapters of "Doomsday Pivot!" will be published?

Nov 18, 7:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81076

OptionProbability

50-99

100-199

200-399

25-49

None

1-9

10-24

400+

37

31

16

12

1

1

1

1

SpaceX pivots away from xAI

Jun 26, 6:07 PMJun 28, 3:59 AM

26.74%chance

3655

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1655

604

Is there a "pivotal weak act"?

Mar 4, 3:55 AMMar 9, 4:59 AM

14.77%chance

20566

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1264

918

What will be true of Manifold's next Pivot?

Feb 7, 8:49 PMDec 31, 8:07 PM

12426

OptionProbability

Involves converting mana to charitable donations

Involves any real-money (that's integral to it, not like buying mana)

Involves crypto

New model is very similar to sweepstakes

Involves cashing out mana

New play-money currency

It replaces mana

45

36

29

28

18

13

13

"The Pivot" Stock

Apr 19, 3:05 AM

10326

OptionProbability

YES

NO

147

68

By 2029, will the U.S. UBI debate pivot toward a UBC/S (Universal Basic Commodities / Services) model?

Jun 9, 3:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.76%chance

7253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

78

OpenAI's for-profit pivot intentionally designed to provoke AGI governance debate before AGI?

May 8, 6:48 PMDec 31, 6:47 PM

10.31%chance

6195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

295

34

Does the pivotal act that Yudkowsky had in mind involve the bioengineering of a contagious disease?

Jun 6, 7:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11%chance

7189

OptionVotes

YES

NO

298

107

Will Democrats (2028 Election) pivot to pro-growth Abundance Policies (Ezra Klein + Derek Thompson) 🇺🇸🦾🤑🦅🏗️🏛️

Mar 6, 3:41 AMNov 30, 12:59 PM

47.29%chance

9169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

95

How many Re Pivots will happen in 2026?

Jan 19, 2:17 PMDec 31, 2:15 PM

40%chance

347

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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