OptionVotes
YES
NO
4744
1120
OptionProbability
Autism
ADHD
Attachment Disorder
Dysthymia
C-PDSD
Personality Disorder
Intellectual giftedness (130+ IQ)
Substance Use Disorder
Bipolar Disorder
Long COVID
87
86
75
51
38
31
28
23
17
11
8) At least one paper from the agenda gets published at a top conference or has a companion LessWrong post with >100 upvotes within 1 year
2) I reflectively endorse focussing on it 1 year later
7) At least one paper from the agenda gets published at a top conference or has a companion LessWrong post with >100 upvotes within 6 months
1) I reflectively endorse focussing on it 6 months later
3) I consider the work produced useful 6 months later
6) A prominent figure in AI safety publicly endorses the agenda or some research produced by it within 1 year
9) At least three papers from the agenda get published at top conferences or have companion LessWrong posts with >100 upvotes within 2 years
4) I consider the work produced useful 1 year later
5) A prominent figure in AI safety publicly endorses the agenda or some research produced by it within 6 months
79
63
61
56
55
50
44
42
37
331
30
146
69
