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Prediction markets for Planning Commission

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

52.48%chance

8912775

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

952

Elon elected to public office as America Party member?

Jul 6, 7:05 PMDec 31, 8:04 PM

3%chance

643025

OptionVotes

YES

NO

569

18

Will the Pentagon make a major planning/budget change against the F-35 by mid 2027

Feb 16, 1:11 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

18.48%chance

2110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

48

What will China's fourth aircraft carrier be named?

Nov 14, 9:22 AMDec 31, 9:10 AM

3110

OptionProbability

Jiangsu

Guangdong

Other

Zhejiang

Hebei

Shanghai

Xianggang (Hong Kong)

Xinjiang

Taiwan

29

28

10

6

6

6

6

6

3

Will the Royal Navy plan to commission more than seven SSN AUKUS submarines?

May 10, 10:57 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

62.13%chance

240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

90

54

Will the USA's CVN-81 "Doris Miller" Aircraft Carrier be launched and commissioned by the end of 2032 as planned?

Nov 27, 7:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.93%chance

533

OptionVotes

NO

YES

113

105

Will the PATH (Port Authority Trans-Hudson) be under the control of NJ Transit before 2030?

May 12, 12:09 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

40.98%chance

322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

Will the UK raise the minimum income requirement for family visas above £40,000 before 2027?

Jul 21, 10:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will the Darvaza Gas Crater in Turkmenistan stop burning before 2029?

Apr 28, 6:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.4%chance

321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

84

China's primary aluminium capacity exceeds 30% benchmark energy efficiency by 2027?

Nov 26, 3:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.94%chance

115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

Will the Royal Navy plan to commission more than six Type 83 destroyers?

May 10, 9:57 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

80

62

Will Taiwan commission eight Hai Kun-class submarines by the end of 2045?

Sep 30, 2:19 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

48.04%chance

02

OptionVotes

YES

NO

52

48

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