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Prediction markets for Planning Commission

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

59.06%chance

9213274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1201

833

Elon elected to public office as America Party member?

Jul 6, 7:05 PMDec 31, 8:04 PM

1.94%chance

643034

OptionVotes

YES

NO

710

14

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

884

Will a Democratic president begin demolishing Trump’s White House ballroom before 2029

May 14, 7:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.3%chance

13619

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1448

691

Will China launch nine aircraft carriers by the end of 2035?

Dec 24, 7:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29%chance

10333

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

64

China's primary aluminium capacity exceeds 30% benchmark energy efficiency by 2027?

Nov 26, 3:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.24%chance

4101

OptionVotes

NO

YES

179

56

Will China commission a fourth conventional aircraft carrier before 2030?

Jan 1, 6:30 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

64.57%chance

461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

135

74

Who will win a seat on the Mountain View City Council in November 2026?

May 17, 12:03 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

444

OptionProbability

Silja Paymer

Robert Cox

Erik Poicon

Alexander Amoroso

IdaRose Sylvester

Paul Donahue

54

52

52

52

50

50

Will the Royal Navy plan to commission more than seven SSN AUKUS submarines?

May 10, 10:57 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

62.13%chance

240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

90

54

Will the USA's CVN-81 "Doris Miller" Aircraft Carrier be launched and commissioned by the end of 2032 as planned?

Nov 27, 7:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.93%chance

533

OptionVotes

NO

YES

113

105

Will the Darvaza Gas Crater in Turkmenistan stop burning before 2029?

Apr 28, 6:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.4%chance

321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

84

Will the Royal Navy plan to commission more than six Type 83 destroyers?

May 10, 9:57 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

80

62

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