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Prediction markets for Planning Commission

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

57.01%chance

9113224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1152

868

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.28%chance

7315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

819

Will China launch nine aircraft carriers by the end of 2035?

Dec 24, 7:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.32%chance

8303

OptionVotes

YES

NO

135

74

What will China's fourth aircraft carrier be named?

Nov 14, 9:22 AMDec 31, 9:10 AM

4130

OptionProbability

Jiangsu

Guangdong

Other

Zhejiang

Hebei

Shanghai

Xianggang (Hong Kong)

Xinjiang

Taiwan

29

28

10

6

6

6

6

6

3

will the trump class battleship ever be built

Dec 23, 1:50 PMDec 31, 1:49 PM

43.08%chance

7116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

China's primary aluminium capacity exceeds 30% benchmark energy efficiency by 2027?

Nov 26, 3:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.24%chance

4101

OptionVotes

NO

YES

179

56

Will the PATH (Port Authority Trans-Hudson) be under the control of NJ Transit before 2030?

May 12, 12:09 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

25.71%chance

472

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

59

Will the Royal Navy plan to commission more than seven SSN AUKUS submarines?

May 10, 10:57 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

62.13%chance

240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

90

54

Will the USA's CVN-81 "Doris Miller" Aircraft Carrier be launched and commissioned by the end of 2032 as planned?

Nov 27, 7:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.93%chance

533

OptionVotes

NO

YES

113

105

Will the UK raise the minimum income requirement for family visas above £40,000 before 2027?

Jul 21, 10:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

Will the Royal Navy plan to commission more than six Type 83 destroyers?

May 10, 9:57 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

80

62

Will Taiwan commission eight Hai Kun-class submarines by the end of 2045?

Sep 30, 2:19 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

48.04%chance

02

OptionVotes

YES

NO

52

48

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