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Prediction markets for Planning Commission

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

58.08%chance

9013035

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1177

850

Elon elected to public office as America Party member?

Jul 6, 7:05 PMDec 31, 8:04 PM

1.92%chance

643029

OptionVotes

YES

NO

715

14

WIll Jerome Powell Be found guilty if indicted?

Jan 12, 2:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.8%chance

13460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

273

37

Will China launch nine aircraft carriers by the end of 2035?

Dec 24, 7:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.32%chance

8303

OptionVotes

YES

NO

135

74

What will China's fourth aircraft carrier be named?

Nov 14, 9:22 AMDec 31, 9:10 AM

4130

OptionProbability

Jiangsu

Guangdong

Other

Zhejiang

Hebei

Shanghai

Xianggang (Hong Kong)

Xinjiang

Taiwan

29

28

10

6

6

6

6

6

3

will the trump class battleship ever be built

Dec 23, 1:50 PMDec 31, 1:49 PM

43.08%chance

7116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

Will the PATH (Port Authority Trans-Hudson) be under the control of NJ Transit before 2030?

May 12, 12:09 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

25.71%chance

472

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

59

Will the Royal Navy plan to commission more than seven SSN AUKUS submarines?

May 10, 10:57 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

62.13%chance

240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

90

54

Will the USA's CVN-81 "Doris Miller" Aircraft Carrier be launched and commissioned by the end of 2032 as planned?

Nov 27, 7:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.93%chance

533

OptionVotes

NO

YES

113

105

Will the Darvaza Gas Crater in Turkmenistan stop burning before 2029?

Apr 28, 6:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.4%chance

321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

84

Will the Royal Navy plan to commission more than six Type 83 destroyers?

May 10, 9:57 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

80

62

Will Taiwan commission eight Hai Kun-class submarines by the end of 2045?

Sep 30, 2:19 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

48.04%chance

02

OptionVotes

YES

NO

52

48

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