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Top stories

San Francisco Moves to End Fines for Parking in Private Driveways

US Domestic Policy

San Francisco Moves to End Fines for Parking in Private Driveways

Authors

3

8 months ago

Prediction markets for Planning Department

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

59.06%chance

9213274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1201

833

Will Donald Trump's face appear on US currency before December 2028?

Feb 11, 6:35 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM

28.72%chance

224761

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1575

635

Will transgender people be denied US passports on the basis of trans status by the end of the 2nd Trump administration?

Feb 16, 5:10 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

29.77%chance

363321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1536

651

Will NYC build more housing in 2026 than 2025?

Jun 29, 2:11 AMMar 31, 10:59 PM

44.11%chance

202488

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1126

888

Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?

Feb 6, 12:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.33%chance

202069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1516

660

China will directly engage in a military conflict before end of 2026

Mar 11, 12:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.4%chance

252024

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2258

443

Will Trump pardon Gannon Ken Van Dyke before 2027?

Apr 24, 1:26 AMJan 1, 2:24 AM

18.19%chance

101340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2121

472

If Trump wins, will the US homicide rate decrease?

Mar 10, 5:05 PMNov 3, 7:59 AM

63%chance

251102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

943

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.32%chance

10544

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

784

US Patent System gets a price hike by 2026?

Aug 7, 9:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.31%chance

6268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1168

856

What will be the initial capitalization of the US national strategic crypto reserve?

Mar 3, 3:11 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

6256

OptionProbability

Between $10 billion and $50 billion

Between $1 billion and $10 billion

Between $50 billion and $100 billion

Greater than $100 billion

Has not been capitalized as of January 21, 2029

>$0, less than $1 billion

48

18

14

9

5

5

When will freedom.gov go live?

Mar 4, 5:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2141

OptionProbability

May 1, 2026 – August 31, 2026

September 1, 2026 – Dec 31, 2026

Jan 1, 2027 +

On or Before April 30, 2026

63

18

15

4

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