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Prediction markets for Platform

Will consumer AI platforms (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, etc) face an ‘economic blackout’ protest against the US govt?

Jan 25, 8:48 PMJul 30, 10:59 PM

3.49%chance

8665771

OptionVotes

YES

NO

52623

1900

Will Twitter incorporate a prediction market into its platform by 2027?

Oct 29, 4:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.66%chance

22324701

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3367

1404

Which specific games from other platforms will be announced for Nintendo Switch 2 before 2028?

May 25, 5:23 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

620077

OptionProbability

Assassin's Creed Shadows

Red Dead Redemption 2

Clair Obscur: Expedition 33

Halo: The Master Chief Collection

Call of Duty: Black Ops 7

Assassin's Creed Mirage

Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024

Crimson Desert

Grand Theft Auto VI

Grand Theft Auto IV

Metal Gear Solid Delta: Snake Eater

Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege

Tom Clancy's The Division

Grand Theft Auto V

100

84

79

73

70

69

62

58

50

37

35

32

23

22

Will a new 3D Mario platformer be revealed or released in 2026?

Jan 16, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.09%chance

192724

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1455

687

In 2026, will the largest AI-based commercial forecasting system (by revenue) have a platform-wide Brier score <0.1?

May 25, 4:22 AMJul 2, 6:59 AM

21.79%chance

102103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1895

528

Will Netflix remain the most popular video streaming platform at the end of 2027?

Jan 11, 2:10 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62.5%chance

19774

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1090

737

Will there be a new social media platform surpassing Instagram before the end of 2027?

Jan 11, 1:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.93%chance

17753

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1442

875

Vibe-coding software reaches 100M+ MAU (summed across all platforms) by 2026 EOY?

Oct 22, 8:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.75%chance

5670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1095

101

Will Spotify remain the most popular music streaming platform in the US at the end of 2027?

Jan 11, 4:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60%chance

17618

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1146

692

Will a major social media platform implement privacy-preserving proof of personhood by 2030?

Aug 16, 11:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55%chance

10557

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1106

905

Before 2037, will a major presidential candidate make cutting off funding to Israel part of their platform?

Sep 28, 4:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.23%chance

11409

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1311

763

Daily LLM assistant personal usage exceeds 2 hours for >10% of users on any platform by end-2026?

Sep 23, 2:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.09%chance

3152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1043

959

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