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Prediction markets for Platform

Will consumer AI platforms (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, etc) face an ‘economic blackout’ protest against the US govt?

Jan 25, 8:48 PMJul 30, 10:59 PM

9.29%chance

7639546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31241

3201

Will Twitter incorporate a prediction market into its platform by 2027?

Oct 29, 4:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.41%chance

21924219

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3670

983

Which specific games from other platforms will be announced for Nintendo Switch 2 before 2028?

May 25, 5:23 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

416292

OptionProbability

Red Dead Redemption 2

Clair Obscur: Expedition 33

Halo: The Master Chief Collection

Call of Duty: Black Ops 7

Assassin's Creed Mirage

Assassin's Creed Shadows

Crimson Desert

Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024

Grand Theft Auto VI

Grand Theft Auto IV

Metal Gear Solid Delta: Snake Eater

Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege

Grand Theft Auto V

Tom Clancy's The Division

84

74

72

70

69

69

64

60

50

48

48

43

28

24

When will Kalshi launch a crypto platform?

Aug 25, 5:56 PMDec 31, 6:45 PM

1214366

OptionProbability

2026 H1

2026 H2

After 2027 or never

2027

2025

37

28

18

14

3

Will a new 3D Mario platformer be revealed or released in 2026?

Jan 16, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.33%chance

151629

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1069

935

Will Netflix remain the most popular video streaming platform at the end of 2027?

Jan 11, 2:10 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62.5%chance

19774

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1090

737

Will there be a new social media platform surpassing Instagram before the end of 2027?

Jan 11, 1:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.93%chance

17753

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1442

875

Vibe-coding software reaches 100M+ MAU (summed across all platforms) by 2026 EOY?

Oct 22, 8:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.75%chance

5670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1614

620

Will Spotify remain the most popular music streaming platform in the US at the end of 2027?

Jan 11, 4:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

58.89%chance

15550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1161

670

Will a major social media platform implement privacy-preserving proof of personhood by 2030?

Aug 16, 11:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.64%chance

8491

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

930

Before 2037, will a major presidential candidate make cutting off funding to Israel part of their platform?

Sep 28, 4:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.47%chance

10309

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1211

826

Daily LLM assistant personal usage exceeds 2 hours for >10% of users on any platform by end-2026?

Sep 23, 2:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.09%chance

3152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1043

959

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