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Prediction markets for Play

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

45%chance

21091878007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4796

3929

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

46%chance

547459947

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2969

2196

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?

Feb 20, 10:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

65.4%chance

25635779

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2187

1991

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Jun 19, 11:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.77%chance

8514854

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1245

803

In what state will the Kansas City Chiefs play a majority of their home games in the 2031 NFL season?

Jul 24, 2:54 AMJan 26, 5:59 AM

44553

OptionProbability

Missouri

Kansas

Other

56

43

1

Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?

Mar 14, 11:02 PMMar 14, 11:59 PM

70.03%chance

722785

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1725

976

Will AI propaganda play a significant role in the 2028 presidential election.

Feb 26, 5:23 PMNov 9, 4:59 AM

69.53%chance

252351

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

875

Will a Language Model under 10B parameters play chess at Grandmaster level by 2050?

Jan 8, 8:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

88%chance

202332

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2600

239

Will Danny Devito play Wario in any official Nintendo movie before the end of 2029?

May 15, 6:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.86%chance

251652

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2845

1483

Will someone be able to play Super Smash Bros directly with the Neuralink as a controller by the end of 2034?

Mar 21, 7:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

75.49%chance

191027

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1047

538

5. Depreciation schedules become critically important, as debt plays growing role in the AI buildout [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.93%chance

8979

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1779

564

Where will the Athletics MLB team play their home games in 2028?

Jun 22, 11:13 PMApr 1, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Las Vegas (including Paradise)

Sacramento (including West Sacramento)

Somewhere within the San Francisco Bay Area

Somewhere else in California

Somewhere else outside California

20

20

20

20

20

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