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In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

84.53%chance

612543987

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6089

702

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?

Feb 20, 10:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

87%chance

27143410

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4674

1450

Will an AI by OpenAI beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Mar 28, 12:16 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

51.82%chance

616130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1154

687

Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?

Mar 14, 11:02 PMMar 14, 11:59 PM

71.04%chance

742947

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1774

956

Will AI propaganda play a significant role in the 2028 presidential election.

Feb 26, 5:23 PMNov 9, 4:59 AM

70.95%chance

282436

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1273

853

Will an AI capable of playing Kerbal Space Program (1 or 2) at a proficient human level exist by the end of 2028?

Nov 23, 10:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

281759

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

930

By 2028, AI can play new levels of "Angry Birds" better than the best human players.

Jan 5, 11:07 AMJan 12, 6:29 PM

77.34%chance

251240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1354

852

5. Depreciation schedules become critically important, as debt plays growing role in the AI buildout [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.47%chance

101079

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1511

664

Will an AI be successfully trained to play Populous The Beginning multiplayer based on bottom-up data (like video training data) by the year 2030?

Jan 1, 7:33 AMNov 1, 5:01 AM

69.04%chance

40901

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

946

In 2028, will a commercial AI be able to play almost all computer games at human level with zero-shot computer use?

Sep 13, 10:29 PMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

41.17%chance

11687

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

837

Will there be reports of an AI playing a significant role in biological gain-of-function research before 2030?

Jun 25, 1:46 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.14%chance

13569

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1187

932

By 2030, AI can defeat the best Go players, training only on as many games as the best Go players have played.

Jan 5, 11:03 AMDec 31, 8:00 AM

46.98%chance

11271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

975

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