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Prediction markets for Plex
What will today's p(doom) be determined to be retrospectively by post singularity simulations?
Jul 9, 2:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
11.84%chance
5427
OptionVotes
273
37
Will the Monarch (Danaus plexippus) become extinct in the current century?
Feb 28, 1:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
13.81%chance
10356
OptionVotes
713
423
Will the METR long-horizons have a >6 month doubling time for at least a 4 month period before 2026?
May 8, 4:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
77.4%chance
12292
OptionVotes
185
54
OptionVotes
79
62