PLO News

US Denies Visas for Abbas and Palestinian Delegation Ahead of UN Assembly

3 months ago

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.48%chance

18377199

OptionVotes

YES

2274

1635

After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?

Nov 2, 6:19 PMNov 9, 11:59 PM

22427674

OptionProbability

Hamas

Israel

Technocratic committee, not elected, internationally supervised

International Peacekeeping Force

PLO

Other

Arab only Peacekeeping Force

A new Gaza-elected government

United States

Territorial rule by tribal clans

PLA

African Peacekeeping Force

Egypt

United Arab Emirates

Qatar

Jordan

Saudi Arabia

Palestinian Islamic Jihad

Turkey

Will GTA6 have anyone commit suicide in its plot?

Oct 24, 8:30 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

72.83%chance

1120470

OptionVotes

YES

164

Who will control Gaza 6 months after the war and how?

Oct 29, 5:12 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

827498

OptionProbability

Israel, occupation

Hamas, with significantly reduced control (including significant loss of territory)

Arab puppet regime

Other

PLO (Fatah), as part of the Palestinian authority

Hamas, status quo

Israel, annexed

Other Anti-Israel Palestinian regime

Hamas, significantly increased control (no blockade, anything up to independence)

After 18 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?

Nov 10, 11:59 AMNov 9, 11:59 PM

181941

OptionProbability

Hamas

PLO

Arab-Only Peacekeeping Force

International Peacekeeping Force (Western at least one other block)

Israel

United States of America

Other

African-Only Peacekeeping Force

Will Neal Stephenson publish a novel in which AI is a crucial plot element by the end of 2026?

Mar 29, 2:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.44%chance

10671

OptionVotes

YES

604

Will AI interpretability techniques reveal an AI to have been plotting to take over the world before 2028?

Aug 12, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13.87%chance

21637

OptionVotes

YES

1133

955

Did Russian GPS jamming delay Ursula von der Leyen's arrival in Plovdiv by an hour?

Sep 2, 10:34 AMDec 31, 10:00 PM

4.39%chance

10421

OptionVotes

YES

466

Will "Murder plots are infohazards" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 14, 5:48 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

5.5%chance

4142

OptionVotes

YES

242

Will Trump pardon the Gretchen Whitmer kidnapping plot defendants?

Jun 14, 5:45 PMDec 31, 6:44 PM

15.56%chance

6137

OptionVotes

YES

233

Will at least one of the pardoned January 6 rioters be involved in a domestic terrorism plot or incident before 2029?

Jan 22, 6:29 PMJan 30, 4:59 AM

69.5%chance

688

OptionVotes

YES

369

258

Will generative.ink be used to guide the plotline of a future video game like Watchdogs or Deus Ex 5?

Sep 22, 5:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.42%chance

240

OptionVotes

YES

112

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By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?

Will GTA6 have anyone commit suicide in its plot?

Who will control Gaza 6 months after the war and how?

After 18 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?

Will Neal Stephenson publish a novel in which AI is a crucial plot element by the end of 2026?

Will AI interpretability techniques reveal an AI to have been plotting to take over the world before 2028?

Did Russian GPS jamming delay Ursula von der Leyen's arrival in Plovdiv by an hour?

Will "Murder plots are infohazards" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will Trump pardon the Gretchen Whitmer kidnapping plot defendants?

Will at least one of the pardoned January 6 rioters be involved in a domestic terrorism plot or incident before 2029?

Will generative.ink be used to guide the plotline of a future video game like Watchdogs or Deus Ex 5?

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