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Top stories

US Denies Visas for Abbas and Palestinian Delegation Ahead of UN Assembly

US Foreign Policy

US Denies Visas for Abbas and Palestinian Delegation Ahead of UN Assembly

Authors

22

10 months ago

Prediction markets for PLO

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.56%chance

18677553

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2497

1461

After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?

Nov 2, 6:19 PMNov 9, 11:59 PM

23029098

OptionProbability

Technocratic committee, not elected, internationally supervised

Israel

Hamas

PLO

International Peacekeeping Force

Other

Arab only Peacekeeping Force

A new Gaza-elected government

United States

Territorial rule by tribal clans

PLA

African Peacekeeping Force

Egypt

United Arab Emirates

Qatar

Jordan

Saudi Arabia

Palestinian Islamic Jihad

Turkey

32

28

24

5

3

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will GTA6 have anyone commit suicide in its plot?

Oct 24, 8:30 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

70%chance

1220474

OptionVotes

NO

YES

153

65

After 18 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?

Nov 10, 11:59 AMNov 9, 11:59 PM

202073

OptionProbability

Hamas

Israel

International Peacekeeping Force (Western at least one other block)

PLO

Arab-Only Peacekeeping Force

United States of America

Other

Other

African-Only Peacekeeping Force

30

28

14

13

10

2

1

1

0

Will Neal Stephenson publish a novel in which AI is a crucial plot element by the end of 2026?

Mar 29, 2:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.84%chance

12936

OptionVotes

YES

NO

789

52

Will AI interpretability techniques reveal an AI to have been plotting to take over the world before 2028?

Aug 12, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13.41%chance

23689

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1171

949

Will "Murder plots are infohazards" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 14, 5:48 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

5.5%chance

4142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

242

87

Will at least one of the pardoned January 6 rioters be involved in a domestic terrorism plot or incident before 2029?

Jan 22, 6:29 PMJan 30, 4:59 AM

66.1%chance

8104

OptionVotes

NO

YES

335

274

A significant theme or plot point in the next James Bond movie will be stochastic terrorism?

Sep 12, 10:50 PMDec 24, 9:59 PM

22%chance

7103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

53

Will at least one of William Eden's kids be part of "the plot" and uplift humanity out of NPC-dom by 2035?

Sep 21, 8:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.59%chance

380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

74

Will "How to game the METR plot" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 20, 10:45 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will the Kentish plover, be a “resident” or “reintroduced” breeding bird in the UK by 2050?

Nov 2, 3:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

65

47

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