Pokémon Center News

The company will be valued at >= $1 Billion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)

The company will be valued at >= $10 Billion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)

At least one of the founders (Ilya Sutskever, Daniel Gross, Daniel Levy) will leave the company

Zvi will mention the company in a blog post

Zvi will mention the company in a blog post in 2025

The company will be valued at >= $100 Million according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)

The company will raise more than $1 billion of capital

Ilya will remain at the company continuously until EOY 2025, or until the company is acquired/ceases to exist

The official SSI X account will have more than 100k followers

The majority of their compute will come from Nvidia GPUs

I will believe the company should have invested more in AI Safety relative to Capabilities at EOY 2025

The company will announce that their path to superintelligence involves self-play/synthetic data

Ilya will discuss the company on a podcast

The company will publish an assessment of the model’s dangerous capabilities (e.g. https://www.anthropic.com/news/frontier-threats-red-teaming-for-ai-safety)

Ilya will give a presentation on research done at the company

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^24 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

A majority of people believe that the company has been net-positive for the world according to a poll released at EOY 2025

The company will include at least one image on its website

The company will announce that their model scores >= 85 MMLU

The company will announce that their model scores >= 50 GPQA

The company will invite independent researchers/orgs to do evals on their models

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^25 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

The company will have at least 100 employees

The company will announce that their path to superintelligence involves creating an automated AI researcher

The company will publish a Responsible Scaling Policy or similar document (e.g. OpenAI’s Preparedness Framework)

The company will announce research or models related to automated theorem proving (e.g. https://openai.com/index/generative-language-modeling-for-automated-theorem-proving/)

The company will be on track to build ASI by 2030, according to a Manifold poll conducted at EOY 2025

I will believe at EOY 2025 that the company has significantly advanced AI capabilities

The company will release a publicly available API for an AI model

The company will publish research related specifically to Sparse Autoencoders

The official SSI X account will have more than 200k followers

I will meet an employee of the company in person (currently true for OAI, Anthropic, xAI but not Deepmind)

The company will sell any products or services before EOY 2025

The company will release a new AI or AI safety benchmark (e.g. MMLU, GPQA)

The company will announce that they are on track to develop superintelligence by EOY 2030 or earlier

The company will publish research which involves collaboration with at least 5 members of another leading AI lab (e.g. OAI, GDM, Anthropic, xAI)

The company will have a group of more than 10 people working on Mechanistic Interpretability

The company will release a chatbot or any other AI system which accepts text input

The company will release a model scoring >= 1300 elo in the chatbot arena leaderboard

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^26 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

The company will open offices outside of the US and Israel

I will believe at EOY 2025 that the company has made significant progress in AI Alignment

I’ll work there (@mr_mino)

The company will announce a commitment to spend at least 20% of their compute on AI Safety/Alignment

The company will be listed as a “Frontier Lab” on https://ailabwatch.org/companies/

The company will be involved in a lawsuit

It will be reported that Nvidia is an investor in the company

The company’s model weights will be leaked/stolen

I will believe at EOY 2025 that the company has built an fully automated AI researcher

The company will make a GAN

The company will announce that their path to superintelligence involves continuous chain of thought

It’s reported that the company’s model scores >= 90 on the ARC-AGI challenge (public or private version)

The company will open source its model weights or training algorithms

It will be reported that a model produced by the company will self-exfiltrate, or attempt to do so

The official SSI X account will have more than 1M followers

The company will be valued at >= $100 Billion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)

The phrase “Feel the AGI” or “Feel the ASI” will be published somewhere on the company website

The company will be reported to purchase at least $1 Billion in AI hardware, including cloud resources

Leopold Aschenbrenner will join the company

The company will advocate for a AI scaling pause or will endorse such a proposal (e.g. https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/)

The company will have a public contract with the US government to develop some technology

The company will publish research related to Singular Learning Theory

Major algorithmic secrets (e.g architecture, training methods) will be leaked/stolen

The company will publish research related to Neural Turing Machines

The company’s AI will be involved in an accident which causes at least $10 million in damages

The company will release a model scoring in the top 3 of the chatbot arena leaderboard

The company will publish a research paper written entirely by their AI system

The company release a video generation demo made by their AI system

I will believe at EOY 2025 the company has made significant advances in robotics or manufacturing

Their model will be able to play Chess, Shogi, or Go at least as well as the best human players

There will be a public protest or boycott directed against the company with more than 100 members

The company will be closer to building ASI than any other AI Lab at EOY 2025, as judged by a manifold poll

The company’s model will independently solve an open mathematical conjecture created before 2024

The company will publish a peer-reviewed paper with more than 1000 citations

The company will be acquired by another company

Elon musk will be an investor of the company

The company will release a model that reaches the #1 rank in the Chatbot Arena (including sharing the #1 rank with other models when their confidence intervals overlap)

The company will release an app available on iPhone or android

The company will change its name

The company will be merged with or acquired by another company

The company will announce that they have created Superintelligence

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^28 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

It will be reported that Sam Altman is an investor in the company

The company will build their own AI chips

Their model will be the first to get a gold medal or equivalent in IMO (International Mathematics Olympiad)

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^29 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

The company will be reported to build a data center with a peak power consumption of >= 1 GW

The company will publish at least 5 papers in peer reviewed journals

The company will declare bankruptcy

The company will be reported to acquire an Aluminum manufacturing plant for its long term power contract

The company will be publicly traded

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^27 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^30 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)

I'll work there (@AndrewG)

The company will be reported to build a data center with a peak power consumption of >=10 GW

The company will be reported to build a data center with a peak power consumption of >=100 GW

The company will be valued at >= $1 Trillion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)

Other

none

metr.org

Survival and Flourishing Corp.

Anthropic

BlueDot Impact

xAI

manifund

epoch ai

Goodfire

Alignment Research Center

Metaculus

Kerch Bridge (Crimea)

Yamal-Europe Pipeline

Belo Monte Dam (Brazil)

Guri Dam (Venezuela)

Itaipu Dam (Brazil and Paraguay)

Vatican City

Suez Canal (Egypt)

Xiluodu Dam (China)

Baihetan Dam (China)

Three Gorges Dam (China)

The Great Sphinx of Giza (Egypt)

Panama Canal (Panama)

Golden Gate Bridge (United States)

Statue of Liberty (US)

The Empire State Building (US)

The Louvre (Paris, France)

Channel Tunnel (UK and France)

Hoover Dam (US)

Port of Houston (US)

World Trade Center (New York, US)

Eiffel Tower (Paris, France)

United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)

Greenpeace

Alliance for Global Justice

Amnesty International

International Workers of the World (IWW)

Democratic Socialists of America (DSA)

UNICEF

Media Matters for America

Planned Parenthood

Oxfam

AFL-CIO

GiveDirectly

United Auto Workers (UAW)

Archive Of Our Own (AO3)

Southern Poverty Law Center

NAACP

League of Conservation Voters

Sierra Club

GiveWell

American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU)

OpenAI

The United Methodist Church (UMC)

L: Elon Musk comes out for lab leak by mid 2025

T5: LLM gives <=50% estimate of "Zoonotic Origin" [72% at EOY 2023] by mid 2029

T3: LLM gives >=10% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Modified Virus" [7% at EOY 2023] by mid 2026

T2: LLM gives >=10% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Modified Virus" [7% at EOY 2023] by mid 2025

B: Wikipedia page "Covid-19 lab leak theory", in LLM judgment, drops down to <=70% confidence from today's "85-95%" confident, by mid 2025

T4: LLM gives <=60% estimate of "Zoonotic Origin" [72% at EOY 2023] by mid 2026

T6: LLM gives <=40% estimate of "Zoonotic Origin" [72% at EOY 2023] by mid 2029

T7: LLM gives >=20% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Unmodified, Collected Virus" [12.5% at EOY 2023] by mid 2029

V: Within 1 year of Xi Jingping's death, China's position on Covid origins shifts significantly, as judged by LLM [subjective]

Proof that most large cities in China have labs working on coronaviruses comparable to Wuhan, a claim alleged by the Wikipedia article, but not backed up with references, by mid 2024

T1: LLM gives >=10% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Modified Virus" [7% at EOY 2023] by mid 2024

E3: Trump publicly comes out for lab leak, by mid 2028

O: Intermediate Host Identification of an animal bridging the gap from bats to humans, by mid 2029

H: Any type of information leak from Wuhan Institute of Virology by mid 2026

D2: Fauci passes away by mid 2029

P: Discovery of an animal precursor to Covid-19 [actually finding a living animal with the virus in it, plausibly back-dateable to the time before the outbreak], by mid 2026

G: Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus comes out for lab leak by mid 2026

J: Identification of an animal reservoir for Covid-19 nearby Wuhan by mid 2027

S2: Disclosure by any means of significant parts of the virus database from WIV with approx 22k unreported bat and rodent viral samples and genomes, by mid 2026

Q: WHO researchers are allowed into WIV and have unfettered access by mid 2026

R: Large document leak from WIV of any type, mentioned in major western media, or publicly available, by mid 2026

N: An earlier center of Covid-19 outbreak is discovered, far away from Wuhan, weakening lab-leak theory by mid 2028

C: Wikipedia page "Covid-19 lab leak theory", in LLM judgment, softens to <=50% confidence, mid year 2025 (see B)

U: Any type of release of significant staff health records of WIV by mid 2029

W: Within 1 year of Fauci's death, US gov't position on Covid origins shifts significantly (subjective)

X: Within 1 year of Biden's death, US gov't position on Covid origins shifts significantly (subjective)

S1: Intentional release of the entire virus database from WIV with approx 22k unreported bat and rodent viral samples and genomes, by mid 2026

D1: Fauci passes away by mid 2025

E1: Trump publicly comes out for lab leak, by mid 2024

E2: Trump publicly comes out for lab leak, by mid 2026

I: News of a defection from someone significant who worked at Wuhan Institute of Virology by mid 2026

M: Zhi Shengli disappears by mid 2028

A: Wikipedia page "SARS-CoV2-2" no longer clearly states it's of zoonotic origin, by mid 2025

D3: Fauci passes away due to Covid

K: Bill Gates comes out for lab leak by mid 2025

Hosted data center

Beamed power

Reflected sunlight

Cryptocurrency mining

Socialdemokraterna (Social democrats)

Moderaterna (Moderates)

Sverigedemokraterna (Swedish democrats)

Liberalerna (Liberals)

Centerpartiet (Center party)

Miljöpartiet (Green party)

Other

Kristdemokraterna (Christian democrats)

Day care workers

strip dancer

Plumbers

Burglary

Academic Reseacher

hairdresser

Public company CEO

Bus driver

taxi driver

Customer Service Chat Agents

supermarket cashier

Call center workers

(Proportion of Markets Visible to >100 Users) * (1 if Manifold markets exist and this info is public, 0 otherwise)

Manifold will not exist in Jan 2027 OR Manifold will not primarily center around prediction markets OR Manifold won't make this information public

Exchange Server

Skype for Business Server

Visio

Visual Studio/Visual Basic

Visual Studio LightSwitch

Visual Studio App Center

Microsoft Office Access

Microsoft Exchange Server

Microsoft Office

Bio-Risk

other

Drones

Paperclipped

"AI gets the nuclear codes"

Disruption of global food supply chain

AI doomer data center airstrike starts WW3 + nuclear winter

AI hacking takes down global communications networks

Chemical attack

SVP/UDC (Far Right; populist anti-immigrant)

FDP/PLR (center-Right; neo-liberal)

Mitte/Centre (center to center-Right; christian centrism)

SP/PS (center-Left to Left; social democracy)

Grüne/Verts (center Left to Left; green politics)