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Prediction markets for Policy Exchange

Will Semaglutide cost less than $2000 per year before 2031?

Jun 2, 7:29 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

78.03%chance

233707

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1885

531

Will another Ivy+ university lose the general ability to enroll international students by end of March 2026?

May 22, 9:57 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

57.02%chance

202185

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1152

868

US Treasury announces new capital controls before May 22, 2026

Apr 22, 11:17 PMMay 22, 11:59 PM

25.48%chance

81348

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1710

585

Will international students be allowed to enroll at Harvard University for the Fall 2025 semester?

May 30, 2:15 AMSep 7, 2:14 AM

95.59%chance

11485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

466

21

Will the foreign population of Japan exceed 5 million people by the 2025 census?

Mar 20, 11:54 PMDec 31, 1:00 PM

11.75%chance

9364

OptionVotes

YES

NO

392

107

Yuan at 8 dollars in 2025?

Apr 8, 12:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.02%chance

6296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

37

Will Semaglutide cost less than $1000 per year before 2031?

Jun 21, 11:59 AMMar 5, 10:59 PM

84.67%chance

5179

OptionVotes

NO

YES

235

43

Australian dollar at or below 0.50 USD by EOY2026?

Apr 11, 12:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.96%chance

7159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

259

39

Will Semaglutide cost less than $1000 per year before 2030?

Jun 24, 11:20 AMMar 5, 10:59 PM

83.68%chance

5145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

226

44

Will Keytruda cost less than $5000 per year before 2030?

Jun 21, 12:52 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

27.11%chance

365

OptionVotes

YES

NO

164

61

Will Keytruda cost less than $2000 per year before 2030?

Jun 24, 12:00 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

44.13%chance

249

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

89

Will the life insurance market be disintermediated by end of 2030?

Mar 25, 11:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.45%chance

322

OptionVotes

NO

YES

93

86

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