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Prediction markets for Policy Institute

Will China Hongqiao Group's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

73.83%chance

710697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16798

5953

Will UC Rusal's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 4.0 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

58.57%chance

69585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11889

8411

Vanadium in VRFBs reach 20% of global vanadium consumption by 2030?

Nov 26, 5:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.22%chance

124755

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1357

738

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

May 3, 5:03 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

44.78%chance

473044

OptionVotes

YES

NO

984

961

Will CAISI have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?

Jul 2, 11:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.21%chance

102486

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1357

737

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.06%chance

122452

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1729

578

Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.4% in 2026?

May 1, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.75%chance

151748

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1343

534

LLMs widely used in economics modeling by the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 12:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.08%chance

161027

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

977

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2027?

Jun 30, 9:06 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4240

OptionProbability

Yes

No

Other

54

23

23

Which China pundits may eventually be found to be assets of the CCP?

Jan 16, 9:41 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

570

OptionProbability

Jeffrey Sachs

Huey Li (and the news)

SerpentZA

Laowhy86

Nicholas Kristof

Michael Pettis

Peter Hessler

James Fallows

Kevin D Walmsley of Inside China Business

Liziqi

Nathan Rich

Living in China

Jerry Kowal

Significant effort (10k+ posts) to manipulate comment threads on hacker news.

Asia Society Policy Institute

Yale Center Beijing

Brookings Institution (China Center)

Blondie in China

Elon Musk

Bill Bishop, Sinocism

52

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

41

40

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Aug 8, 5:43 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.45%chance

365

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4047

3968

How many U.S. teaching positions will LPI estimate were vacant or filled by teachers without full certification in 2027?

Aug 8, 5:31 AMAug 2, 5:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

Under 400,000

400,000–424,999

425,000–449,999

450,000–474,999

475,000 or more

20

20

20

20

20

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