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Prediction markets for Policy Institute

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Dec 14, 1:34 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

18.29%chance

4610088

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1576

823

Will Russia attack NATO before 2034?

Nov 25, 11:48 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

43.72%chance

346146

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1172

143

Will the NIH indirect cost cap stick?

Feb 9, 6:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.8%chance

53423

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1789

559

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

May 3, 5:03 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

53.02%chance

442859

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1116

821

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.17%chance

112322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1724

580

California Exodus: Will California lose inhabitants between 2010 and 2030?

Nov 11, 10:03 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

37.58%chance

281696

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1378

717

Vanadium in VRFBs reach 20% of global vanadium consumption by 2030?

Nov 26, 5:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.85%chance

7963

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1004

998

LLMs widely used in economics modeling by the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 12:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.85%chance

15727

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

729

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2027?

Jun 30, 9:06 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4240

OptionProbability

Yes

No

Other

54

23

23

Will credible evidence emerge before 2027 that Meta can access the content of WhatsApp messages despite end-to-end encry

Jan 27, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.66%chance

6187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

251

40

Which China pundits may eventually be found to be assets of the CCP?

Jan 16, 9:41 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

570

OptionProbability

Jeffrey Sachs

Huey Li (and the news)

SerpentZA

Laowhy86

Nicholas Kristof

Michael Pettis

Peter Hessler

James Fallows

Kevin D Walmsley of Inside China Business

Liziqi

Nathan Rich

Living in China

Jerry Kowal

Significant effort (10k+ posts) to manipulate comment threads on hacker news.

Asia Society Policy Institute

Yale Center Beijing

Brookings Institution (China Center)

Blondie in China

Elon Musk

Bill Bishop, Sinocism

52

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

41

40

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Aug 8, 5:43 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.45%chance

365

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4047

3968

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