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Prediction markets for Polit

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66%chance

24101760042

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8402

2974

Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?

Jun 5, 6:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.18%chance

1007683119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16697

6508

Will Elon musk form a new political party

Jul 1, 1:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25%chance

353405989

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2266

1066

The Political Fate of Elon

Sep 15, 6:45 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4633030

OptionProbability

Pay >$50m in fines/settlements if Dems win

Convicted of felony if Dems win

Pay >$50m in fines/settlements if Reps win

X shut down/sold if Dems win

Convicted of felony if Reps win

X shut down/sold if Reps win

30

23

18

18

4

4

Elon Musk creates political party before Trump presidency ends?

Jun 11, 5:57 AMJan 21, 11:59 AM

26.39%chance

9030996

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1840

405

Will Donald Trump still be relevant in US politics by 2028?

Sep 7, 12:08 AMNov 1, 3:59 AM

88.36%chance

4429518

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2486

591

Will Elon Musk's political orientation change by the end of 2025?

Oct 9, 3:51 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

29.9%chance

15927461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1628

360

Politically Provoked Brittany Stock

Nov 3, 1:14 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

15222052

OptionProbability

NO

YES

2289

1548

Will Donald Trump arrest his political opponents?

Dec 17, 6:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61%chance

9212709

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1410

453

Will a deepfake video cause a major political controversy involving a head of state by 2026?

Jan 23, 3:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54.6%chance

743887

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

517

Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?

Mar 14, 11:02 PMMar 14, 11:59 PM

70.28%chance

712780

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1737

971

Will Greta Thunberg run for or be appointed to any political role before the end of 2030?

Sep 6, 1:26 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

34.15%chance

30869

OptionVotes

NO

YES

998

990

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