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Prediction markets for Polit

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

94.44%chance

27212587387

OptionVotes

NO

YES

20346

822

Which political party wins the US presidency in 2028?

Nov 8, 6:22 AMNov 10, 7:59 AM

268219925

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other Party

67

32

1

Elon Musk creates political party before Trump presidency ends?

Jun 11, 5:57 AMJan 21, 11:59 AM

13.95%chance

15350635

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2488

248

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job loss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.52%chance

3826421

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1294

776

Politically Provoked Brittany Stock

Nov 3, 1:14 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

15222052

OptionProbability

NO

YES

2289

1548

In 2028, will AI be a top 3 political issue for voters?

Dec 11, 7:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.16%chance

8015146

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1696

591

Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?

Mar 14, 11:02 PMMar 14, 11:59 PM

71.04%chance

742947

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1774

956

Will an AI be elected into any political office in any country before 2035?

Jan 30, 9:37 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

32.08%chance

572917

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1066

780

Will AI be a bigger political issue than China by the end of 2028?

Jan 13, 1:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76%chance

351725

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1862

352

Will Greta Thunberg run for or be appointed to any political role before the end of 2030?

Sep 6, 1:26 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30%chance

331574

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

936

Will prediction markets be formally integrated into a government's political system before 2040? 📜🏛️⚖️📊

Apr 13, 6:53 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

28.56%chance

271039

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

946

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.23%chance

16261

OptionVotes

NO

YES

994

994

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