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Prediction markets for Polit

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

94%chance

27142541459

OptionVotes

NO

YES

19680

863

Which political party wins the US presidency in 2028?

Nov 8, 6:22 AMNov 10, 7:59 AM

224160805

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other Party

62

36

2

Elon Musk creates political party before Trump presidency ends?

Jun 11, 5:57 AMJan 21, 11:59 AM

4.65%chance

9633657

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3928

118

Politically Provoked Brittany Stock

Nov 3, 1:14 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

15222052

OptionProbability

NO

YES

2289

1548

In 2028, will AI be a top 3 political issue for voters?

Dec 11, 7:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.57%chance

7513265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1267

791

Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?

Mar 14, 11:02 PMMar 14, 11:59 PM

71.04%chance

742947

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1774

956

Will an AI be elected into any political office in any country before 2035?

Jan 30, 9:37 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

32.08%chance

572917

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1066

780

What will Adjacent’s RED political index value be at the 2026 midterms?

Jun 23, 9:38 PMJun 24, 3:59 AM

62779

OptionProbability

90 - 98

Below 90

99 - 107

108 - 116

117 - 125

126 - 135

Above 135

30

25

25

12

3

3

2

Will AI be a bigger political issue than China by the end of 2028?

Jan 13, 1:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76%chance

351725

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1862

352

Will Greta Thunberg run for or be appointed to any political role before the end of 2030?

Sep 6, 1:26 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30%chance

331574

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

936

Will prediction markets be formally integrated into a government's political system before 2040? 📜🏛️⚖️📊

Apr 13, 6:53 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

28.27%chance

261005

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

956

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.23%chance

16261

OptionVotes

NO

YES

994

994

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