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Prediction markets for Polit

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

87.67%chance

26902448528

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14267

1378

Which political party wins the US presidency in 2028?

Nov 8, 6:22 AMNov 10, 7:59 AM

194149424

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other Party

60

39

1

Elon Musk creates political party before Trump presidency ends?

Jun 11, 5:57 AMJan 21, 11:59 AM

8.65%chance

9333180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3052

177

Politically Provoked Brittany Stock

Nov 3, 1:14 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

15222052

OptionProbability

NO

YES

2289

1548

In 2028, will AI be a top 3 political issue for voters?

Dec 11, 7:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.11%chance

457285

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1044

959

Will an AI be elected into any political office in any country before 2035?

Jan 30, 9:37 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

32.08%chance

572917

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1066

780

Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?

Mar 14, 11:02 PMMar 14, 11:59 PM

68.29%chance

732820

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1647

1011

Will AI be a bigger political issue than China by the end of 2028?

Jan 13, 1:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

75%chance

341675

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1825

364

Will Greta Thunberg run for or be appointed to any political role before the end of 2030?

Sep 6, 1:26 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30%chance

321474

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

936

Will prediction markets be formally integrated into a government's political system before 2040? 📜🏛️⚖️📊

Apr 13, 6:53 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

33.27%chance

24855

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1065

806

Will any of the following Western countries' legislatures be majority controlled by explicitly fascist or communist political parties before 2030?

Feb 8, 10:43 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.64%chance

21561

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1189

926

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

986

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