Polynomial News

Can NP-complete problems be solved in polynomial time?

Nov 23, 2:25 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

5.27%chance

336254

OptionVotes

YES

1576

925

Which computational universe do we live in?

Sep 17, 5:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

283938

OptionProbability

Cryptomania

Minicrypt

Heuristica

Pessiland

Algorithmica

Will a polynomial-time algorithm for an NP-complete problem be published by 2030?

Oct 16, 4:26 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

3.64%chance

213438

OptionVotes

YES

1710

902

Will a polynomial time factoring algorithm be found by 2035?

Sep 6, 8:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.96%chance

512583

OptionVotes

YES

2216

1303

Which of these research ideas will I publish or preprint by end of 2026?

Dec 10, 4:53 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

71671

OptionProbability

Grover Project w/ Or

[James's system of equations for multichoice mechanism versions](https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/solve-these-equations-for-a-simpler#pcfde0bgc1)

Formalizing "Categorical Composable Cryptography"

SNARK project w/ Sanjam

Data availability phase changes

`nazg`: Proving Ring Equalities Done Wrong

Post-quantum backdoorable VDFs

Iuvenes Project w/ Or

Mechanism design to incentivize `mathlib` contribution

Optimal sampling for statistical democracy w/ Surya

Formal Proof for Marlin w/ Pratyush

Eigenlayer Project w/ Or

NeRF the world

TEE via physics/materials science w/ Sylvain

Krugman's Interstellar trade redux

Solving Hanabi

Automated Market Maker Monte Carlo w/ @EvanDaniel

Quantum cowry shells

range saturation tactic

Mixing for slow traders

Homotopy theory DeFi

Violating classical consensus impossibility results with quantum

Poisson average-case TSP

Efficient polynomial multiplication for mathlib

Paradoxical hiding in ROM

100

If P=NP is proven, will the first proof be constructive?

Aug 23, 3:07 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

28.28%chance

291131

OptionVotes

YES

1636

647

Will we be able to solve all NP problems in polynomial time by 2200? (any practical computation method, e.g. BPP, BQP)

Nov 25, 2:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.41%chance

15909

OptionVotes

YES

1179

955

Can integer factorization be solved in polynomial time on a classical computer?

Feb 7, 5:46 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

10.41%chance

12765

OptionVotes

YES

1062

968

Are π and e algebraically independent?

Oct 16, 12:30 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

86.87%chance

15544

OptionVotes

YES

1185

946

To which level does the polynomial hierarchy collapse?

Sep 28, 3:02 PMOct 6, 4:59 AM

9294

OptionProbability

Does not collapse

Other

First level (P = NP)

Second level (NP = PH)

Third level

Will polynomial NP-complete algorithms be galactic?

Sep 25, 2:53 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

83.2%chance

5186

OptionVotes

YES

223

Which paper will win the Gödel prize in 2026

Jul 21, 7:03 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

160

OptionProbability

Other

Simulating Time With Square-Root Space

MIP* = RE

The Complexity of Gradient Descent: CLS = PPAD ∩ PLS

Graph Isomorphism in Quasipolynomial Time

A Dichotomy Theorem for Nonuniform CSPs

Superpolynomial Lower Bounds Against Low-Depth Algebraic Circuits

An Average-Case Depth Hierarchy Theorem for Boolean Circuits

Learning Algorithms from Natural Proofs

Deciding Parity Games in Quasi-polynomial Time

A Proof of the CSP Dichotomy Conjecture

Induced subgraphs of hypercubes and a proof of the Sensitivity Conjecture

Polynomial News

Prediction markets for Polynomial

Prediction markets for Polynomial

Prediction markets for Polynomial

Can NP-complete problems be solved in polynomial time?

Which computational universe do we live in?

Will a polynomial-time algorithm for an NP-complete problem be published by 2030?

Will a polynomial time factoring algorithm be found by 2035?

Which of these research ideas will I publish or preprint by end of 2026?

If P=NP is proven, will the first proof be constructive?

Will we be able to solve all NP problems in polynomial time by 2200? (any practical computation method, e.g. BPP, BQP)

Can integer factorization be solved in polynomial time on a classical computer?

Are π and e algebraically independent?

To which level does the polynomial hierarchy collapse?

Will polynomial NP-complete algorithms be galactic?

Which paper will win the Gödel prize in 2026

Latest stories