OptionVotes
NO
YES
1029
865
1070
971
OptionProbability
Unyielding Islamic Regime
Deal with minimal concessions
Balkanization/long civil war
Deal with major concessions
Military coup (Artesh)
Popular takeover
Voluntary transition of power
Venezuela-style puppet state
33
18
17
15
11
4
2
1
1077
713
125
80
Jul-Sep 2026
Apr-Jun 2026
Jan-Mar 2026
Oct-Dec 2026
31
29
20
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