OptionProbability
Unyielding Islamic Regime
Deal with minimal concessions
Deal with major concessions
Military coup (Artesh)
Popular takeover
Balkanization/long civil war
Venezuela-style puppet state
Voluntary transition of power
35
28
26
4
3
2
1
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1127
756
1014
906
1077
713
Jul-Sep 2026
Apr-Jun 2026
Jan-Mar 2026
Oct-Dec 2026
31
29
20
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