OptionVotes
NO
YES
1014
906
OptionProbability
Deal with minimal concessions
Unyielding Islamic Regime
Deal with major concessions
Balkanization/long civil war
Military coup (Artesh)
Popular takeover
Venezuela-style puppet state
Voluntary transition of power
43
36
8
6
3
1
1021
952
1077
713
111
90
Jul-Sep 2026
Apr-Jun 2026
Jan-Mar 2026
Oct-Dec 2026
31
29
20
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