OptionProbability
Unyielding Islamic Regime
Deal with major concessions
Deal with minimal concessions
Military coup (Artesh)
Venezuela-style puppet state
Balkanization/long civil war
Popular takeover
Voluntary transition of power
37
25
24
6
3
2
1
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1014
906
Jul-Sep 2026
Oct-Dec 2026
Apr-Jun 2026
Jan-Mar 2026
44
29
18
10
1077
713
1040
961
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