Post News
Top stories
Prediction markets for Post
AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026
Jul 5, 7:26 AMJul 4, 11:59 PM
3977464
OptionProbability
80
77
70
61
59
24
9
Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?
Dec 2, 3:54 PMNov 22, 12:38 PM
18.08%chance
10048532
OptionVotes
1573
1344
Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030
Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
17.75%chance
10842699
OptionVotes
11769
8879
Will the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year?
Jan 8, 4:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
90%chance
1129061
OptionVotes
300
33
In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?
Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
76%chance
10913611
OptionVotes
2950
638
Will Any Top-8 Economy See Its Birthrate Rise 5% from Its Lowest post-2015 Point by 2025?
Jan 2, 11:19 PMJul 31, 10:59 PM
95.99%chance
267959
OptionVotes
4253
123
Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
23.08%chance
127430
OptionVotes
7704
2333
Will I succeed in my goal of posting an experiment proposal every Friday for the next 10 weeks?
Mar 18, 1:42 PMMay 29, 11:59 PM
36.89%chance
10817
OptionVotes
1098
805
Will money still exist in a post-AGI, post-scarcity society?
Mar 25, 12:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
71.94%chance
29705
OptionVotes
991
975
Will Jeff Bezos sell/close the Washington Post by 2030?
Jan 1, 1:43 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
38.94%chance
17652
OptionVotes
1088
822
Will "Make More Grayspaces" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jul 20, 1:10 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
31.37%chance
5358
OptionVotes
1156
411
How long will it be until Candace Owen’s releases the Egyptian plane timeline? (From time of post)
Jan 28, 1:19 AMJan 1, 1:19 AM
00
OptionProbability
25
25
25
25