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Top stories

DHS Moves Secretary Noem to Military Housing Citing Security Threats

US Gov Appointments

US Domestic Policy

DHS Moves Secretary Noem to Military Housing Citing Security Threats

Authors

5

4 months ago

Washington Post Says Colts’ Jim Irsay Relapsed and Had Three Overdoses

Washington Post Says Colts’ Jim Irsay Relapsed and Had Three Overdoses

Authors

12

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Post

Will @ElonMusk force people to see his X posts even if blocked?

Sep 24, 3:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.28%chance

75107935

OptionVotes

YES

NO

47945

2368

AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

Jul 5, 7:26 AMJul 4, 11:59 PM

3473575

OptionProbability

Coding agents will close the loop

Recursively improving coding agents will succeed in the market

Coding agents will flip the initiative

The specific model will not matter as much as today; the network of agents will be important

The multi-agent paradigm will win

“Live learning” will be standard

xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality

80

72

70

61

55

25

20

Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?

Dec 2, 3:54 PMNov 22, 12:38 PM

18.08%chance

10048532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1573

1344

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.02%chance

10841949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11019

9048

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76%chance

10913611

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2950

638

Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.08%chance

127430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7704

2333

Will George R. R. Martin's next "Not a Blog" post mention "The Winds of Winter"?

Nov 10, 9:11 PMApr 29, 10:09 PM

22.55%chance

126334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1853

540

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2026?

Mar 19, 3:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

275530

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1255

619

Apple/Google post United States v. Google by 2026 year end?

Aug 6, 1:16 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

14914

OptionProbability

No TAC, keep the queries

Keep the TAC, keep the queries

No TAC, lose the queries

Keep the TAC, lose the queries

38

34

17

11

Will Jeff Bezos sell/close the Washington Post by 2030?

Jan 1, 1:43 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

38.94%chance

17652

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1088

822

Will "Make More Grayspaces" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 20, 1:10 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

31.37%chance

5358

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1156

411

Will "WTH is Cerebrolysin, actually?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Aug 10, 7:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

17.84%chance

244

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

781

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