Poste News

Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?

Dec 2, 3:54 PMNov 22, 12:38 PM

15%chance

10248838

OptionVotes

YES

1879

1284

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.6%chance

10842720

OptionVotes

YES

11866

8858

Will Trump post another religious image deifying himself?

Apr 15, 4:48 PMJan 20, 5:29 PM

72%chance

26319520

OptionVotes

YES

1604

624

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

84.14%chance

10914299

OptionVotes

YES

3638

469

Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.18%chance

158124

OptionVotes

YES

8398

2142

Will RAY post reviews of at least five Scott Alexander essays before EOY?

Aug 7, 11:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.75%chance

75706

OptionVotes

YES

15368

6507

Will "Current AIs seem pretty misaligned to me" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 15, 4:46 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

90.04%chance

122413

OptionVotes

YES

1755

Will money still exist in a post-AGI, post-scarcity society?

Mar 25, 12:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.94%chance

29705

OptionVotes

YES

991

975

Will Jeff Bezos sell/close the Washington Post by 2030?

Jan 1, 1:43 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

38.94%chance

17652

OptionVotes

YES

1088

822

Will "Make More Grayspaces" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 20, 1:10 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

31.37%chance

5358

OptionVotes

YES

1156

411

Will I believe the post "Cardiovascular disease is a solved problem" is broadly correct in August 2028?

Jul 11, 11:37 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

14.1%chance

4180

OptionVotes

YES

7270

7055

Which members of Trump's current cabinet will leave their posts before the first 100 days of the new Congress are over?

Nov 7, 8:31 PMApr 13, 4:00 PM

OptionProbability

Scott Bessent - Secretary of the Treasury

Todd Blanche - Attorney General

Doug Burgum - Secretary of the Interior

Jay Clayton - Director of National Intelligence

Doug Collins - Secretary of Veterans Affairs

Sean Duffy - Secretary of Transportation

Jamieson Greer - United States Trade Representative

Pete Hegseth - Secretary of War

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. - Secretary of Health and Human Services

Kelly Loeffler - Administrator of the Small Business Administration

Howard Lutnick - Secretary of Commerce

Linda McMahon - Secretary of Education

Markwayne Mullin - Secretary of Homeland Security

John Ratcliffe - Director of the Central Intelligence Agency

Brooke Rollins - Secretary of Agriculture

Marco Rubio - Secretary of State

Keith Sonderling - Secretary of Labor

Scott Turner - Secretary of Housing and Urban Development

Russ Vought - Director of the Office of Management and Budget

Chris Wright - Secretary of Energy

Lee Zeldin - Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency

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Prediction markets for Poste

Prediction markets for Poste

Prediction markets for Poste

Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Will Trump post another religious image deifying himself?

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?

Will RAY post reviews of at least five Scott Alexander essays before EOY?

Will "Current AIs seem pretty misaligned to me" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Will money still exist in a post-AGI, post-scarcity society?

Will Jeff Bezos sell/close the Washington Post by 2030?

Will "Make More Grayspaces" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will I believe the post "Cardiovascular disease is a solved problem" is broadly correct in August 2028?

Which members of Trump's current cabinet will leave their posts before the first 100 days of the new Congress are over?

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