Power Five News

Will space be the cheapest place to put AI by end of Feb 2029?

Feb 16, 4:26 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

4.19%chance

9514585

OptionVotes

YES

4785

209

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

57.01%chance

9113224

OptionVotes

YES

1152

868

Will the Supreme Court overturn Griggs v. Duke Power Co.?

May 4, 2:33 AMMay 3, 3:59 AM

21.37%chance

183300

OptionVotes

YES

1467

799

Will Reality Shifting be proven as a real phenomenon before 2070?

Feb 15, 9:39 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6.09%chance

243124

OptionVotes

YES

3239

689

When Iran’s new Supreme Leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) dies or steps down, who will be the next next Supreme Leader?

Mar 9, 4:17 PMMar 9, 4:14 PM

111643

OptionProbability

Other

Alireza Arafi

Hashem Hosseini Bushehri

Ongoing “interim” arrangement / power-sharing structure.

No one (regime change, system change) = no Supreme Leader

Power struggle between 1 or more that sees rival Supreme Leaders both with actually realistic claims (based on authority/endorsements by senior clerics and religious figures etc).

Reza Pahlavi

Ari Larijani

President of Cuba Miguel Diaz Canel deposed by 2030

Jan 4, 6:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.7%chance

91139

OptionVotes

YES

547

190

Who will win the 2026 F1 season World Driver's Championship

Feb 2, 10:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23997

OptionProbability

George Russell

Kimi Antonelli

Lando Norris

Max Verstappen

Charles leclerc

Oscar Piastri

Lewis Hamilton

Fernando Alonso

Valtteri Bottas

Nico Hulkenberg

Sergio Perez

Lance Stroll

Carlos Sainz

Alex Albon

Isack Hadjar

Liam lawson

Arvind Lindblad

Estaben Ocon

Oliver Bearman

Gabriel Bortoleto

Pierre Gasly

Franco Colapinto

How many nuclear reactors will Spain have in 2028?

May 3, 4:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11407

OptionProbability

Below 6

Above 7

Will the Taliban still be in power in Afghanistan five years from now? (March 2024-2029)

Mar 19, 8:33 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM

76.62%chance

16398

OptionVotes

YES

1045

963

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.06%chance

8279

OptionVotes

YES

105

103

Will there be another nation-wide blackout in Spain by 2027?

Jan 1, 2:38 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

13.7%chance

6245

OptionVotes

YES

354

113

Will the Taliban's opium ban last for five more years?

Jul 17, 6:08 AMJul 17, 6:59 AM

51.07%chance

9101

OptionVotes

YES

217

200

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Prediction markets for Power Five

Prediction markets for Power Five

Prediction markets for Power Five

Will space be the cheapest place to put AI by end of Feb 2029?

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Will the Supreme Court overturn Griggs v. Duke Power Co.?

Will Reality Shifting be proven as a real phenomenon before 2070?

When Iran’s new Supreme Leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) dies or steps down, who will be the next next Supreme Leader?

President of Cuba Miguel Diaz Canel deposed by 2030

Who will win the 2026 F1 season World Driver's Championship

How many nuclear reactors will Spain have in 2028?

Will the Taliban still be in power in Afghanistan five years from now? (March 2024-2029)

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Will there be another nation-wide blackout in Spain by 2027?

Will the Taliban's opium ban last for five more years?

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