Power Five News

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

43%chance

8712384

OptionVotes

YES

1151

869

Spain's Power Outage Cause Bingo

Apr 29, 10:10 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

5511624

OptionProbability

Cascading failure (like something went wrong and the recovery procedure had an issue that made it worse)

Loss of synchronism

Strain on electrical/transmission infrastructure principally caused by renewable energy sources

Low or insufficient inertia

Battery storage

Renewables made the grid less stable

Never found root cause

Accidental infrastructure damage (fallen tower, wildlife, etc)

Bad weather

The cause didn't originate in Spain (was propagated by EU grid)

Intended infrastructure damage (cable cut, bomb, etc)

It's declared a cyber attack

Cyber attack & Russia-funded

Cyber attack & independent group

"Intern plugged wrong cable"

Cyber attack & USA-funded

Will the Supreme Court overturn Griggs v. Duke Power Co.?

May 4, 2:33 AMMay 3, 3:59 AM

21.37%chance

183300

OptionVotes

YES

1467

799

Will Reality Shifting be proven as a real phenomenon before 2070?

Feb 15, 9:39 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6.06%chance

233123

OptionVotes

YES

3255

688

Will Meloni's presidency last at least 3 consecutive years?

Mar 8, 10:05 AMOct 22, 9:59 PM

90.21%chance

13732

OptionVotes

YES

531

Will the Taliban still be in power in Afghanistan five years from now? (March 2024-2029)

Mar 19, 8:33 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM

76.62%chance

16398

OptionVotes

YES

1045

963

How many nuclear reactors will Spain have in 2028?

May 3, 4:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7297

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.06%chance

8279

OptionVotes

YES

105

103

Will the Taliban's opium ban last for five more years?

Jul 17, 6:08 AMJul 17, 6:59 AM

51.07%chance

9101

OptionVotes

YES

217

200

Conditional on complete oil & gas sector destruction: would the iranian regime collapse within 5 years?

Jun 21, 8:56 PMJun 21, 8:54 PM

62.81%chance

585

OptionVotes

YES

130

Will OpenAI implement any of the reform recommendations from The OpenAI Files by end of 2025?

Jun 19, 8:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.13%chance

333

OptionVotes

YES

104

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

122

Power Five News

Prediction markets for Power Five

Prediction markets for Power Five

Prediction markets for Power Five

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Spain's Power Outage Cause Bingo

Will the Supreme Court overturn Griggs v. Duke Power Co.?

Will Reality Shifting be proven as a real phenomenon before 2070?

Will Meloni's presidency last at least 3 consecutive years?

Will the Taliban still be in power in Afghanistan five years from now? (March 2024-2029)

How many nuclear reactors will Spain have in 2028?

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Will the Taliban's opium ban last for five more years?

Conditional on complete oil & gas sector destruction: would the iranian regime collapse within 5 years?

Will OpenAI implement any of the reform recommendations from The OpenAI Files by end of 2025?

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

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