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Power Grid News

    Prediction markets for Power Grid

    Which engineering breakthroughs will achieve widespread commercial and societal integration by 2050? [add responses]

    Jun 12, 1:39 PMDec 1, 8:59 PM
    27584177

    OptionProbability

    Therapies to reverse cardiovascular diseases

    Gene Editing Therapies

    Personalized medicine based on patient's genetic profile

    Autonomous Drone Swarms Dominating Land and Air Combat

    Regenerative Medicine

    Brain-Computer Interfaces

    Heat pumps and solar panels for heating homes

    Humanoid Robots in Service/Logistics Roles

    Solar panels with 40% efficiency

    Bioprinting

    Synthetic Meat Indistinguishable from Real Meat

    Therapies to reverse neurodegenerative diseases

    Fully Autonomous Cargo Ships

    Transoceanic fully autonomous container crossing without onboard crew

    Artificial Photosynthesis (10% efficiency in converting sunlight to chemical energy)

    viable cloned organs using your own DNA as base (i.e. no autoimmune organ rejection)

    Human-level AGI

    Solid-state EV batteries ≥ 500 Wh/kg in mass-produced cars

    Space-Based Manufacturing

    A Specific ‘Longevity Drug’ or Defined Drug Combination that Extends Average Human Healthspan by at Least 10 Years

    Desalination with Energy Consumption Below 1.5 kWh/m³

    Seafloor Mining Robots

    Cancer Vaccine Targeting Multiple Types of Cancer

    Quantum Computing Applications

    Non-invasive colon cancer screening that is equally or more effective than a Colonoscopy

    Graphene semiconductor electronics

    Nanorobots for Precision Drug Delivery

    Lunar Bases

    Moon base

    Self-Healing Materials for Infrastructure

    Advanced Exoskeletons for Everyday Use

    Male pattern baldness treatment that consistently turns Nowood 7 to Norwood 1 (no surgery/grafts)

    Major resurgence of lighter than air craft for shipping or consumer travel/leisure

    Britain finishes HS2

    More than half of all commercial ships built between 2030-2050 have the option to supplement their power burn with wind power (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R6ln7pr5QU)

    Photonic computing

    Smart Contact Lenses with AR Capabilities

    Commercial asteroid mining

    Datacenters in space

    Artificial Wombs for Human Gestation (from conception to birth)

    Hypersonic commercial passenger travel

    Sand Batteries (Polar Night Energy) to store energy for months.

    Joywire

    Nuclear powered cargo ships

    Room-Temperature Atmospheric-Pressure Superconductors

    Fast travel across the globe

    Commercial fusion power

    AI that produces AAA-level video games via end-user prompts

    Medication that adds 30 lbs+ muscle with no major negative health effects

    Mars Base

    City-scale fully automated underground logistics networks

    Nuclear microreactors that can be used anywhere

    Nuclear Thermal Rockets

    Point-to-Point Suborbital Spaceflight (Regularly Scheduled Passenger Transport)

    Cryonics with Successful Revival

    Biohybrid Robots with Living Muscle Tissue

    Universal Flu Vaccine (effictive against all current and future strains)

    Food with bioengineered saturated fat that doesn't raise cholesterol

    Commercial satellite to ground power transmission

    Self-Actuating Metamaterials for Adaptive Structures in Buildings and Infrastructure

    Changing the height of an adult at will

    Von Neumann Probe

    Orbital Habitats

    Self-Replicating Fully-Automated Factories

    Fusion Drives

    Engineered Symbiotic Microorganism Implants for Human Physiological Augmentation

    Human Mind Uploading

    Space-to-Earth power stations

    Space probes travelling at >=1% speed of light

    Direct Cognitive Collaboration

    Autonomous Flying Cars in Cities

    Cell replacement therapy using synthetic cells

    A skyhook space structure in LEO

    Human sex change at chromosome level

    Human Missions to Mars with Round-Trip Travel Time Under 6 Months

    Changing a person's race at will

    Room-Temperature Superconducting Transmission Lines in Urban Power Grids

    Vacuum Airships

    Time travel to the future

    Commercial cold fusion

    Space Elevator

    Quantum Sensors Enabling Detection of Cancer Years Before Symptoms

    Temporal Cloaking Device (Hiding Events in Time)

    Antimatter bombs

    Reality Anchoring Device (Stabilizing Subjective Reality)

    1% Dyson sphere coverage

    Faster then Light Propulsion

    Time travel to the past

    96

    95

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    90

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    86

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    84

    84

    83

    81

    81

    77

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    61

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    55

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    49

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    43

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    40

    40

    39

    38

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    35

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    32

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    30

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    26

    26

    26

    26

    25

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    25

    21

    21

    21

    20

    18

    16

    14

    10

    8

    6

    6

    6

    5

    5

    4

    4

    4

    2

    Will any fossil fuel power station be capable of supplying the UK grid by the end of 2030?

    Jul 21, 10:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    90.39%chance
    72100

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    3067

    326

    [short fuse] What was the source of the explosion-like sound heard in New England? [add responses]

    May 30, 6:55 PMJun 29, 6:48 PM
    132037

    OptionProbability

    Meteor, comet, etc

    Military training exercise

    Earthquake or seismic event

    Space debris re-entry

    Industrial manufacturing accident

    Large-scale construction demolition

    Atmospheric pressure wave anomaly

    Sonic boom from commercial or private spacecraft

    Large-scale natural gas pipeline explosion

    Transformer station or power grid failure

    Other

    99

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Will "'False Flag' on Power Grid Result in Holocaust of Non-Compliant Humans"?

    Aug 8, 6:56 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
    2.61%chance
    141837

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2132

    890

    Will Nuclear Fusion supply power to an electric grid before 2035?

    Mar 21, 3:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    43.44%chance
    271632

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    896

    109

    Which country will produce the first >1GW nuclear fusion power plant to return energy back to the grid?

    Dec 20, 9:25 PMDec 27, 9:25 PM
    131086

    OptionProbability

    UK

    USA

    Other

    China

    France

    Germany

    India

    A country not mentioned in the answers

    Japan

    A collaboration of multiple countries

    51

    28

    16

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    Which country will be the first to add commercially viable nuclear fusion energy to their power grid?

    Mar 17, 9:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    22621

    OptionProbability

    USA

    China

    UK

    Other

    Finland

    France

    South Korea

    Japan

    India

    38

    19

    15

    14

    5

    3

    3

    1

    1

    In what year will Nuclear Fusion supply power to an electric grid?

    Mar 25, 1:19 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
    5532

    OptionProbability

    2030-2034

    2035-2039

    2040-2044

    2045-2049

    2050-2054

    2055-2059

    2060-2064

    2065-2070

    21

    17

    13

    11

    11

    9

    9

    9

    Which will happen first?

    Mar 19, 5:09 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
    10185

    OptionProbability

    AGI achieved as determined by USA unemployment exceeding 20%

    A 1MW Fusion power plant connected to any electric grid

    Non-terrestrial life is widely considered to exist

    A room-temperature superconductor is discovered

    33

    27

    24

    16

    Will Nuclear Fusion supply power to an electric grid before 2040?

    Mar 21, 3:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    68.1%chance
    669

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    179

    96

    Will Nuclear Fusion supply power to an electric grid before 2050?

    Mar 21, 3:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    71.48%chance
    562

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    197

    97

    Will Nuclear Fusion supply power to an electric grid before 2045?

    Mar 21, 3:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    54.64%chance
    422

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    211

    190

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