Power Systems News

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

22%chance

783394355

OptionVotes

YES

7386

3139

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.44%chance

12337037

OptionVotes

YES

14083

6658

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

Jan 3, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.94%chance

8832150

OptionVotes

YES

11964

1860

Regime change in Cuba by 2030?

Jan 3, 8:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57%chance

14926583

OptionVotes

YES

1152

869

Relationship Style Stonks

Mar 25, 9:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5813156

OptionProbability

Other

BDSM

Power couple

"Fun while it lasted"

Me + *Her*

Keynesian beauty contest

Spinning rapidly in opposite directions

Polyamory

Monogamy

Relationship Futarchy

Human + Robot

Enemies to Lovers

Co-conspirators

Philosophically incompatible

Conjoined twinks

Horizontal gene transfer

borgie

Relationship Anarchy

Platonic

Wild Lovers

Friends with Benefits

Relationship constitutional republic: people in it have systemically different levels of power and decision-making influence

Forever alone

Glucose guardian/splenda spender/sugar daddy

Hive / Swarm / Superorganism

Love triangle

Traditional marriage of two cis straight White Christian vanilla people where the man "leads" and is 0-4 years older than the woman, with 2.5 kids (not counting any LGBTQIA+ ones) and a McMansion with 2.5 SUVs/trucks

Universal love

merged consciousness

Rationalussy

Vespertine

liking/reacting to even their most meaningless posts and comments on social media and prediction markets

Matriarchy

Labor Union

Socratic

Partners in crime, like Caroline Ellison and Sam Bankman-Fried

One with an IPO (Intimate Partnership Offer)

Just being one helluva slut

Beard

Paradixical

Friends with Detriments

NP-complete

"I'll never admit to anyone that we met on Tinder"

Hell's Kitchen

Stockholm Syndrome

London Syndrome

Financial Domination

The Price is Right

Crows

Single by choice (except it's other people's choice)

Budget horse

assortative

Hubris quest

Fiends with benefits

Envenomation

Polygamy

Polyandry

Ethical Non-Monogamy

Unethical Non-Monogamy

Celibacy

Aromanticism

Solo poly

Open relationship

Polyfidelity

What's a "relationship"?

Reflexive

Symmetric

Transitive

Metamour

Socially enforced monogamy

Unreciprocated love

Asexual romance

Abusive

"This is my emotional support Ex"

FWB

Enemies-To-Lovers

Codependent

Transference

Monogamish

Voyeuristic

Hobbesian

Romantic Mutual Suicide

Mutuals

Animalistic

Human + AI

parasocial

Polycule

Cuckold

Throuple

Boyce-Codd normal form

Aristotelian

I like big butts and I cannot lie

I like big butts and I cannot tell the truth, how will you escape our dungeon

The Apprentice

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

Aug 8, 5:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.28%chance

8844

OptionVotes

YES

4652

3621

Will the number of conflicts involving AI-powered autonomous weapons systems rise by at least 50% within next 10 years?

Apr 9, 9:30 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

76.15%chance

12270

OptionVotes

YES

1232

880

Conditional on the following events, before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Aug 8, 6:23 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

2230

OptionProbability

7. Before 2050, there is an AI catastrophe and the response IS insufficient

5. Before 2050, an AI system IS shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior

1. Before 2030, there IS an AI-caused administrative disempowerment

3. Between 2023-2030, deep learning revenue DOES doubles every 2 years

6. Before 2050, an AI system IS NOT shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior

2. Before 2030, there IS NOT an AI-caused administrative disempowerment

4. Between 2023-2030, deep learning revenue DOES NOT double every 2 years

8. Before 2050, there is an AI catastrophe and the response IS NOT insufficient

Lightcell's system demonstrates higher power-to-weight ratio than PEM fuel cell system by 2028?

Jun 22, 8:18 PMDec 31, 9:17 PM

47.56%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

1050

952

Will Nord Pool 2027 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

50.07%chance

115

OptionVotes

YES

10015

9985

Will Nord Pool 2028 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

52%chance

OptionVotes

YES

10000

How concerned over the next 30 years are you: "A powerful AI system has its goals not set right, causing a catastrophe"

Jan 5, 10:34 AM

650

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Prediction markets for Power Systems

Prediction markets for Power Systems

Prediction markets for Power Systems

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

Regime change in Cuba by 2030?

Relationship Style Stonks

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

Will the number of conflicts involving AI-powered autonomous weapons systems rise by at least 50% within next 10 years?

Conditional on the following events, before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Lightcell's system demonstrates higher power-to-weight ratio than PEM fuel cell system by 2028?

Will Nord Pool 2027 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?

Will Nord Pool 2028 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?

How concerned over the next 30 years are you: "A powerful AI system has its goals not set right, causing a catastrophe"

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