PRA News

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44.5%chance

553464228

OptionVotes

YES

2901

2279

2025/2026 NBA regular season prop bets

Dec 3, 7:04 AMJun 21, 8:59 PM

3812426

OptionProbability

Victor Wembanyama plays at least 58 games

Warriors miss the playoffs

Jayson Tatum plays at least 100 mins for the Celtics

Celtics make the playoffs

At least one player averages a 50/40/90 shooting season (at least 64 games)

Sixers make the playoffs

Pistons are first seed in the East

SGA has the highest EPM at the end of the season

SGA leads the league in total free throws

OKC Thunder win less than 66 games

SGA wins MVP

At least 3 coaches are fired before the playoff starts

Alperen Sengun makes an All NBA team

Jokic wins MVP

Thunder win at least 70 games

Thunder break Warriors 73-9 wins record

LeBron plays at least 62 games

Bronny James plays at least 800 minutes

Lakers are a top 3 seed in the Western Conference

Mavericks make the playoffs

Knicks are a top 2 seed in the Eastern conference

Luka wins MVP

Austin Reaves wins MIP

A 2024/2025 first/second team All-NBA player is traded

Jokic finishes top 3 in pts/rebounds/assists (each of, not total)

Milwaukee Bucks finish in the play-in spots

Chet Holmgren wins DPOY

Anthony Davis plays are least 50 games for the Mavs

Cooper Flagg outscores Luka's rookie PRA

Giannis gets traded

James Harden leads the league in assists

At least 2 players make at least 300 threes

Luka averages at least 34.5 ppg

At least two 70-point+ games

Rudy Gobert wins DPOY

Ja Morant gets traded

Clippers make the playoffs outright (no play-in)

100

Will 5,000+ people live in the city of Praxis before 2030?

Sep 18, 5:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.94%chance

423639

OptionVotes

YES

1223

1110

SOAI#7: A movie or short film produced with significant use of AI wins major audience praise and sparks backlash

Oct 9, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.83%chance

292683

OptionVotes

YES

1328

753

Will AGI, net positive nuclear fusion, and practical quantum computers be realized by the end of 2039?

Sep 24, 10:57 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

28.98%chance

211212

OptionVotes

YES

1055

968

Will the planned city of Praxis begin construction by 2030?

Sep 14, 4:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.6%chance

231176

OptionVotes

YES

1023

921

In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)

Jul 28, 1:21 PMJan 1, 2:08 PM

75.9%chance

14875

OptionProbability

YES

1795

801

Will AGI, net positive nuclear fusion, and practical quantum computers be realized by the end of 2034?

Sep 24, 10:57 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

29.21%chance

17752

OptionVotes

YES

998

896

Will Apple have a significant change in business practices due the United States v. Apple trial?

Mar 26, 7:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

73.03%chance

12387

OptionVotes

YES

1103

943

Practical relationship between thought and quantum mechanics found and used by 2050

Jun 7, 7:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.64%chance

12338

OptionVotes

YES

1129

950

Will the first Superintelligence try to end the practice of factory farming (including if only for mammals)?

Aug 18, 10:58 PMAug 18, 10:57 PM

61.65%chance

8325

OptionVotes

YES

1268

789

Will the first Super Intelligence try to end the practice of factory farming (for any species) ?

Aug 18, 10:56 PMAug 18, 10:56 PM

51.44%chance

392

OptionVotes

YES

1079

1022

PRA News

Prediction markets for PRA

Prediction markets for PRA

Prediction markets for PRA

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

2025/2026 NBA regular season prop bets

Will 5,000+ people live in the city of Praxis before 2030?

SOAI#7: A movie or short film produced with significant use of AI wins major audience praise and sparks backlash

Will AGI, net positive nuclear fusion, and practical quantum computers be realized by the end of 2039?

Will the planned city of Praxis begin construction by 2030?

In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)

Will AGI, net positive nuclear fusion, and practical quantum computers be realized by the end of 2034?

Will Apple have a significant change in business practices due the United States v. Apple trial?

Practical relationship between thought and quantum mechanics found and used by 2050

Will the first Superintelligence try to end the practice of factory farming (including if only for mammals)?

Will the first Super Intelligence try to end the practice of factory farming (for any species) ?

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