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Prediction markets for PRA

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.9%chance

613548563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5386

853

Will 5,000+ people live in the city of Praxis before 2030?

Sep 18, 5:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.03%chance

434104

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1298

691

Will it become practically impossible to verify the authenticity of humans using the internet by 2026?

Mar 18, 12:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.86%chance

371969

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1085

902

Will the planned city of Praxis begin construction by 2030?

Sep 14, 4:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

52.86%chance

271699

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1320

513

Will AGI, net positive nuclear fusion, and practical quantum computers be realized by the end of 2039?

Sep 24, 10:57 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

28.98%chance

211212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1055

968

In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)

Jul 28, 1:21 PMJan 1, 2:08 PM

75.9%chance

14875

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1795

801

Will AGI, net positive nuclear fusion, and practical quantum computers be realized by the end of 2034?

Sep 24, 10:57 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

29.21%chance

17752

OptionVotes

NO

YES

998

896

Will the first Superintelligence try to end the practice of factory farming (including if only for mammals)?

Aug 18, 10:58 PMAug 18, 10:57 PM

53.16%chance

9475

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1065

939

Will Apple have a significant change in business practices due the United States v. Apple trial?

Mar 26, 7:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

73.03%chance

12387

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1103

943

Practical relationship between thought and quantum mechanics found and used by 2050

Jun 7, 7:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.64%chance

12338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1129

950

Will the first Super Intelligence try to end the practice of factory farming (for any species) ?

Aug 18, 10:56 PMDec 5, 11:56 PM

58.93%chance

8294

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1256

878

Which religions will have gained in total self-identified practicing members from 2026 to 2057?

Oct 3, 8:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Buddhist

Hindu

Jain

Sikh

50

50

50

50

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