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Prediction markets for Pre Market

Will Trump pardon Luigi Mangione prior to Jan 20, 2029?

Jan 26, 3:07 AMFeb 22, 7:59 AM

1.09%chance

58154920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

117790

4179

How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?

Jul 2, 9:32 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

683152932

OptionProbability

Ukraine ceding more than Crimea to Russia

No cease-fire of 6 months

Pre-2014: Crimea controlled by Ukraine

Pre-2022: Crimea controlled by Russia but not more

No Ukraine anymore

No Russia anymore

60

23

10

6

1

1

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.6%chance

2733852

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24189

4134

Will the Kenya Universal Basic Income experiment find that UBI significantly reduces local crime?

Jan 10, 3:40 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM

69.54%chance

37232372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2905

1797

OpenAI valuation on MNX (October 1st)

Aug 9, 10:39 PMOct 1, 7:00 AM

2017709

OptionProbability

Above $1T

Above $1.5T

Above $2.5T

Above $4T

87

78

12

2

Anthropic valuation on MNX (October 1st)

Aug 9, 10:39 PMOct 1, 7:00 AM

3217161

OptionProbability

Above $1T

Above $1.5T

Above $2.5T

Above $4T

97

92

42

4

Will I have a new serious relationship within the next 5 years?

Jun 11, 4:45 PMJun 18, 8:59 PM

3111948

OptionProbability

With a cisgender woman

With anyone at all

With a cisgender man

With a transfeminine person

With a transmasculine person

100

100

40

38

24

Kimi Moonshot AI valuation on MNX (October 1st)

Aug 9, 10:39 PMOct 1, 7:00 AM

3211008

OptionProbability

Above $50B

Above $100B

Above $200B

Above $400B

92

46

11

5

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.25%chance

257899

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12989

7710

Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?

Jul 4, 4:48 PMDec 31, 12:57 PM

18.23%chance

42026

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7892

5278

Will an AI agent autonomously perform peer-review-quality LHC particle physics analysis by December 2029

Dec 23, 8:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.96%chance

41621

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2851

560

Will the Supreme Court hear a case about prediction market pre-emption?

Sep 8, 6:18 PMDec 31, 7:13 PM

43.69%chance

61134

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1135

881

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