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Prediction markets for Pre Market

Will Trump pardon Luigi Mangione prior to Jan 20, 2029?

Jan 26, 3:07 AMFeb 25, 7:59 AM

1.01%chance

53150700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125336

4099

How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?

Jul 2, 9:32 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

670149733

OptionProbability

Ukraine ceding more than Crimea to Russia

No cease-fire of 6 months

Pre-2014: Crimea controlled by Ukraine

No Ukraine anymore

No Russia anymore

Pre-2022: Crimea controlled by Russia but not more

78

11

8

1

1

1

Will the Kenya Universal Basic Income experiment find that UBI significantly reduces local crime?

Jan 10, 3:40 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM

65.75%chance

36330981

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2624

1931

Will I have a new serious relationship within the next 5 years?

Jun 11, 4:45 PMJun 18, 8:59 PM

3011898

OptionProbability

With a cisgender woman

With anyone at all

With a cisgender man

With a transfeminine person

With a transmasculine person

100

100

40

39

24

Will xAI Reach Major Lab Status?

Jul 15, 7:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.28%chance

8911284

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3759

339

Storage devices with neural networks pre-loaded sold in major electronics retailers by end of 2035

Jan 5, 5:22 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

29.98%chance

217286

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15272

6552

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.02%chance

85517

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15278

6555

Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?

Jul 4, 4:48 PMDec 31, 12:57 PM

19.42%chance

31576

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7442

5382

Will the Supreme Court hear a case about prediction market pre-emption?

Sep 8, 6:18 PMDec 31, 7:13 PM

43.58%chance

51132

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1138

879

Will an AI agent autonomously perform peer-review-quality LHC particle physics analysis by December 2029

Dec 23, 8:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.55%chance

3121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1351

1158

Will the DPP gain, hold or lose seats in the 2026 City Mayor and County Magistrate elections in Taiwan?

Dec 23, 4:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Gain

Hold

Lose

33

33

33

Will the KMT gain, hold or lose seats in the 2026 City Mayor and County Magistrate elections in Taiwan?

Dec 23, 4:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Gain

Hold

Lose

33

33

33

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