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Prediction markets for Predators

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

29.62%chance

792419119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25144

17456

Will the US stock market have experienced another lost decade before 2034?

Sep 16, 8:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18%chance

18944

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1432

869

If elected, will President Trump succeed in jailing his opponents?

Oct 27, 7:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.35%chance

21889

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1268

789

Malcolm Collins or Simone Collins convicted of felony before 2035

Dec 29, 6:16 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

26.05%chance

5685

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1685

593

By 2030, will any Democratic administration succeed in jailing their opponents?

Nov 8, 12:49 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

39.5%chance

3458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1238

808

Will Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft get into pharma in the next 5 years?

Jun 13, 7:39 AMJun 13, 8:59 PM

63.2%chance

13363

OptionVotes

NO

YES

989

989

Will New Zealand be predator-free in 2050?

Mar 5, 5:03 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

20.97%chance

9246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

370

93

When will a notable American politician or corporate executive be assassinated by a cheap non state drone within the US?

Feb 19, 12:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.77%chance

8235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

251

127

Will my African Grey Parrot be alive at the beginning of 2030?

Oct 4, 4:13 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

85.06%chance

8168

OptionVotes

NO

YES

330

120

Will running "prey substitute" robots, which carry meat substitutes for feeding wild predators, exist by 2050?

May 25, 6:01 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

24.21%chance

7155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

228

168

Which of these characters will be playable in Dead by Daylight before 2029?

Jul 14, 7:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

391

OptionProbability

Pennywise

Predator

Candyman

Slenderman

M3GAN

Creature from the Black Lagoon

48

48

48

45

45

41

Will Predator be added to Dead by Daylight by the end of 2026?

May 25, 3:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.64%chance

327

OptionVotes

YES

NO

123

81

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