PREP News

Trump Administration Threatens $81 Million PREP Funding in 46 States Over Gender Ideology, Transgender References With 60-Day Deadline

1 year ago

Is the preprint suggesting Betelgeuse supernova within decades correct?

Jun 20, 12:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.7%chance

161969

OptionVotes

YES

1919

765

Will Elon's Terafab produce a single chip before 2028?

Mar 25, 5:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.5%chance

201785

OptionVotes

YES

1348

742

Which of these research ideas will I publish or preprint by end of 2026?

Dec 10, 4:53 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

71671

OptionProbability

Grover Project w/ Or

[James's system of equations for multichoice mechanism versions](https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/solve-these-equations-for-a-simpler#pcfde0bgc1)

Formalizing "Categorical Composable Cryptography"

SNARK project w/ Sanjam

Data availability phase changes

`nazg`: Proving Ring Equalities Done Wrong

Post-quantum backdoorable VDFs

Iuvenes Project w/ Or

Mechanism design to incentivize `mathlib` contribution

Optimal sampling for statistical democracy w/ Surya

Formal Proof for Marlin w/ Pratyush

Eigenlayer Project w/ Or

NeRF the world

TEE via physics/materials science w/ Sylvain

Krugman's Interstellar trade redux

Solving Hanabi

Automated Market Maker Monte Carlo w/ @EvanDaniel

Quantum cowry shells

range saturation tactic

Mixing for slow traders

Homotopy theory DeFi

Violating classical consensus impossibility results with quantum

Poisson average-case TSP

Efficient polynomial multiplication for mathlib

Paradoxical hiding in ROM

100

Will the Giro d'Italia's calendar position change before 2030?

Oct 18, 7:45 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

24.84%chance

71280

OptionVotes

YES

3612

2144

How will the structural similarity of the three frontier AI safety frameworks (Anthropic RSP, OpenAI Preparedness, GDM F

Jul 18, 3:52 AMJun 30, 4:59 AM

3603

OptionProbability

Converge — similarity score ≥ 22/30

No significant change — 17–21

Diverge — ≤ 16

Is the preprint proof of Goldbach's weak conjecture sound?

Oct 28, 3:37 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

81.17%chance

9215

OptionVotes

YES

245

[Metaculus] Before 2032, will at least $30 billion in new funding be authorized towards US pandemic preparedness?

Oct 12, 10:19 PMJan 2, 5:00 PM

59.57%chance

471

OptionVotes

YES

130

Class de 2031 vai ter a maior % de aprovações da história do prep?

Feb 9, 10:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.07%chance

255

OptionVotes

YES

140

By 2031, will MIRI still require the services of a CPA or equivalent professional to prepare their 2030 tax form?

Jul 11, 4:43 PMJul 12, 6:59 AM

63%chance

541

OptionVotes

YES

123

100

Will OpenAI classify any model as "Critical" capability under its Preparedness Framework before Oct 1, 2026?

Aug 8, 5:44 AMOct 1, 4:00 AM

51.47%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

130

How should Tetraspace have prepared for getting COVID?

Sep 5, 11:35 AMApr 29, 10:59 PM

Recommend me a cool preparation for cabbage

Oct 1, 3:57 AM

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Prediction markets for PREP

Prediction markets for PREP

Prediction markets for PREP

Is the preprint suggesting Betelgeuse supernova within decades correct?

Will Elon's Terafab produce a single chip before 2028?

Which of these research ideas will I publish or preprint by end of 2026?

Will the Giro d'Italia's calendar position change before 2030?

How will the structural similarity of the three frontier AI safety frameworks (Anthropic RSP, OpenAI Preparedness, GDM F

Is the preprint proof of Goldbach's weak conjecture sound?

[Metaculus] Before 2032, will at least $30 billion in new funding be authorized towards US pandemic preparedness?

Class de 2031 vai ter a maior % de aprovações da história do prep?

By 2031, will MIRI still require the services of a CPA or equivalent professional to prepare their 2030 tax form?

Will OpenAI classify any model as "Critical" capability under its Preparedness Framework before Oct 1, 2026?

How should Tetraspace have prepared for getting COVID?

Recommend me a cool preparation for cabbage

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