Presence News

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.16%chance

26682672

OptionVotes

YES

8636

4842

Will the President have federal police presence at polling places during the midterms?

Jul 7, 6:13 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

55.15%chance

13560

OptionVotes

YES

1109

902

By 2035, will the presence of anomalously high levels of phosphine on Venus be confirmed by spacecraft?

Sep 29, 8:57 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM

40%chance

15553

OptionVotes

YES

1102

799

Will Tumbles bask in the presence of Mira's divine intelligence before 2028?

Dec 2, 1:19 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

58%chance

10503

OptionVotes

YES

218

185

By 2035, will we have measured an exoplanet atmosphere whose composition is best explained by the presence of life?

Apr 16, 10:05 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

47.73%chance

9414

OptionVotes

YES

139

121

What security measures will Israel have put in place 6 months after the war in Gaza is over?

Jan 12, 7:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16381

OptionProbability

Taking territory from Gaza to create a buffer zone on the border

Taking control of the Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt

Conducting regular raids in Gaza (similar to the West Bank)

Stationing a permanent Israeli military presence in Gaza

Expelling lower-level members of Hamas from Gaza

During which decade will people establish a permanent presence on the moon?

Jan 17, 11:16 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8288

OptionProbability

2030s

2040s

2050s

None of the above

2020s

Will USA break its continuous human presence in outer space before 2040?

Sep 18, 5:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.56%chance

5220

OptionVotes

YES

1071

933

In what year will humanity establish a lasting presence on the Moon?

May 5, 2:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.7%chance

3163

OptionProbability

YES

406

209

If/when a nation in each geopolitical sphere first/next becomes communist, will it be invaded within a year?

Jul 1, 7:44 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

353

OptionProbability

US allies with significant US troop presence (>10% of their own active military) and/or US-land-border e.g. Germany, Japan, Bahrain, Canada

US allies with moderate US troop presence (1-10% of their own active military) e.g. UK, Italy, Spain, South Korea, Australia

Russia-China allies within connected defence pacts e.g. Belarus, Kazakhstan, North Korea

Russia-China allies outside connected defence pacts e.g. Cuba, Syria, Iran

US allies with negligible US troop presence (<1% of their own active military) but within connected defence pacts e.g. France, Brazil

US allies with negligible US troop presence and outside connected defence pacts e.g. Switzerland, Ukraine, Taiwan

Nations outside both US and Russia-China geopolitical spheres e.g. India, South Africa, Indonesia

Russia

The US

Mainland China

How many people protested hanania's presence at manifest by not coming?

Sep 25, 5:55 PM

How much Trump's presence/lack of presence in the Epstein files change your views on him?

Jul 27, 12:17 AM

180

Presence News

Prediction markets for Presence

Prediction markets for Presence

Prediction markets for Presence

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Will the President have federal police presence at polling places during the midterms?

By 2035, will the presence of anomalously high levels of phosphine on Venus be confirmed by spacecraft?

Will Tumbles bask in the presence of Mira's divine intelligence before 2028?

By 2035, will we have measured an exoplanet atmosphere whose composition is best explained by the presence of life?

What security measures will Israel have put in place 6 months after the war in Gaza is over?

During which decade will people establish a permanent presence on the moon?

Will USA break its continuous human presence in outer space before 2040?

In what year will humanity establish a lasting presence on the Moon?

If/when a nation in each geopolitical sphere first/next becomes communist, will it be invaded within a year?

How many people protested hanania's presence at manifest by not coming?

How much Trump's presence/lack of presence in the Epstein files change your views on him?

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