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Prediction markets for Pret

Will Charlie Kirk’s murder be used as pretense for troops at polling booths in 2026, 2028?

Sep 10, 10:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.21%chance

389849

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1819

550

Will GiveWell fund probiotic supplementation for preterm newborns by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.41%chance

187062

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7087

2553

Will "Current AIs seem pretty misaligned to me" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 15, 4:46 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

90.04%chance

122413

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1755

32

Any charges filed against the Border Patrol agent who shot and killed Alex Pretti? (Jan 24, Minneapolis)

Jan 24, 5:30 PMDec 31, 5:28 PM

221079

OptionProbability

No Charges

Manslaughter

Other / Lesser Charges

Civil Rights Violation

Murder

48

36

24

18

12

Will the ICE agents who shot Alex Pretti be charged in any federal court?

Jan 26, 4:10 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

12.21%chance

18855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

268

37

Will there be a more sample-efficient pretraining algorithm than next token prediction for NLP before 2027?

Jun 3, 2:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.43%chance

10623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1141

876

Empire of Mexico restored to the House of Iturbide (pretender Maximilian von Götzen-Iturbide) before 3rd March 2034.

Jun 26, 9:12 PMMar 2, 11:59 PM

4.11%chance

8493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

483

21

Will "Alignment Pretraining: AI Discourse Causes Se..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 21, 11:06 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

22.52%chance

4179

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1085

607

Will "Pretraining on Aligned AI Data Dramatically R..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jan 24, 7:40 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.25%chance

3167

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1057

991

Next pretender or their issue to assume the throne of a European restored monarchy. Only one resolves YES. (add answers)

Aug 9, 2:20 PMFeb 17, 3:11 PM

265

OptionProbability

Other

Grand Duchess Maria Vladimirovna of Russia, or issue

Leka, Prince of Albania (b. 1982), or issue

Simeon Saxe-Coburg-Gotha, or issue (Bulgaria)

Georg Friedrich Prinz von Preussen, or issue (Germany)

Louis Alphonse de Bourbon, or issue (France)

Pavlos, Crown Prince of Greece, or issue

Karl von Habsburg, or issue (Austria)

Duarte Pio, Duke of Braganza, or issue (Portugal)

Margareta of Romania, or issue

Paul Philippe of Romania, or issue

Emanuele Filiberto of Savoy, Prince of Venice, or issue (Italy)

Aimone di Savoia Aosta (born 1967), or issue (Italy)

9

8

8

8

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

Will "models have some pretty funny attractor states" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 13, 4:33 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.4%chance

352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1045

993

Will "Synthetic Persona Pretraining: Alignment from..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 28, 10:06 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.9%chance

17

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

999

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