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Prediction markets for Pret

Will Charlie Kirk’s murder be used as pretense for troops at polling booths in 2026, 2028?

Sep 10, 10:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.99%chance

4110535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2292

436

Will GiveWell fund probiotic supplementation for preterm newborns by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.41%chance

187062

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7087

2553

Will "Current AIs seem pretty misaligned to me" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 15, 4:46 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

90.04%chance

122413

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1755

32

Any charges filed against the Border Patrol agent who shot and killed Alex Pretti? (Jan 24, Minneapolis)

Jan 24, 5:30 PMDec 31, 5:28 PM

231099

OptionProbability

No Charges

Manslaughter

Other / Lesser Charges

Civil Rights Violation

Murder

53

36

24

17

12

Will there be a more sample-efficient pretraining algorithm than next token prediction for NLP before 2027?

Jun 3, 2:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.43%chance

10623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1141

876

Will "Alignment Pretraining: AI Discourse Causes Se..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 21, 11:06 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

22.52%chance

4179

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1085

607

Will "Pretraining on Aligned AI Data Dramatically R..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jan 24, 7:40 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.25%chance

3167

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1057

991

Will Cygames add a playable character based on an American racehorse to Uma Musume: Pretty Derby before 2030?

Aug 27, 12:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.03%chance

373

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

Will anyone be prosecuted for the murder of Alex Pretti by the end of 2027?

Feb 23, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.71%chance

370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

59

Next pretender or their issue to assume the throne of a European restored monarchy. Only one resolves YES. (add answers)

Aug 9, 2:20 PMFeb 17, 3:11 PM

265

OptionProbability

Other

Grand Duchess Maria Vladimirovna of Russia, or issue

Leka, Prince of Albania (b. 1982), or issue

Simeon Saxe-Coburg-Gotha, or issue (Bulgaria)

Georg Friedrich Prinz von Preussen, or issue (Germany)

Louis Alphonse de Bourbon, or issue (France)

Pavlos, Crown Prince of Greece, or issue

Karl von Habsburg, or issue (Austria)

Duarte Pio, Duke of Braganza, or issue (Portugal)

Margareta of Romania, or issue

Paul Philippe of Romania, or issue

Emanuele Filiberto of Savoy, Prince of Venice, or issue (Italy)

Aimone di Savoia Aosta (born 1967), or issue (Italy)

9

8

8

8

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

Will "models have some pretty funny attractor states" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 13, 4:33 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.4%chance

352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1045

993

Will "Synthetic Persona Pretraining: Alignment from..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 28, 10:06 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.9%chance

17

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

999

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