Pret News

Will Charlie Kirk’s murder be used as pretense for troops at polling booths in 2026, 2028?

Sep 10, 10:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.21%chance

389849

OptionVotes

YES

1819

550

Will any charges be filed against a ICE/CBP agent who shot Alex Pretti? (Minneapolis)

Jan 25, 2:02 AMJan 1, 3:01 AM

389012

OptionProbability

Manslaughter

No Charges Filed

Other or Lesser Charges

Federal Civil Rights Violation

Murder

Will GiveWell fund probiotic supplementation for preterm newborns by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.71%chance

156504

OptionVotes

YES

6529

2770

Will "Current AIs seem pretty misaligned to me" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 15, 4:46 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

90%chance

112412

OptionVotes

YES

1754

What will be true of Olivia Rodrigo's next album, 'You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love'?

Mar 17, 12:57 PMMay 17, 12:29 PM

192073

OptionProbability

It will have more than 12 songs

It will have a Metacritic rating of 60% or higher one week post-release

Pitchfork will describe at least one song as a 'ballad'

Pitchfork will describe at least one song as pop-punk

It will debut at #1 on Spotify's global albums chart

It will debut at #1 on the Billboard 200

Pitchfork will rate it higher than SOUR (>7.0)

It will have a Metacritic rating of 90% or higher one week post-release

Pitchfork will rate it higher than GUTS (>8.0)

It will have a four-letter title

Will the ICE agents who shot Alex Pretti be charged in any federal court?

Jan 26, 4:10 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

11.62%chance

17828

OptionVotes

YES

276

Will there be a more sample-efficient pretraining algorithm than next token prediction for NLP before 2027?

Jun 3, 2:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.43%chance

10623

OptionVotes

YES

1141

876

Empire of Mexico restored to the House of Iturbide (pretender Maximilian von Götzen-Iturbide) before 3rd March 2034.

Jun 26, 9:12 PMMar 2, 11:59 PM

4.11%chance

8493

OptionVotes

YES

483

Will "Alignment Pretraining: AI Discourse Causes Se..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 21, 11:06 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

22.52%chance

4179

OptionVotes

YES

1085

607

Will "Pretraining on Aligned AI Data Dramatically R..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jan 24, 7:40 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.25%chance

3167

OptionVotes

YES

1057

991

Will "models have some pretty funny attractor states" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 13, 4:33 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.4%chance

352

OptionVotes

YES

1045

993

Will FP8 be the primary pretraining precision for a majority of frontier models released in 2027?

Apr 7, 10:09 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

41.42%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

220

168

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Prediction markets for Pret

Prediction markets for Pret

Prediction markets for Pret

Will Charlie Kirk’s murder be used as pretense for troops at polling booths in 2026, 2028?

Will any charges be filed against a ICE/CBP agent who shot Alex Pretti? (Minneapolis)

Will GiveWell fund probiotic supplementation for preterm newborns by 1st January 2027?

Will "Current AIs seem pretty misaligned to me" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

What will be true of Olivia Rodrigo's next album, 'You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love'?

Will the ICE agents who shot Alex Pretti be charged in any federal court?

Will there be a more sample-efficient pretraining algorithm than next token prediction for NLP before 2027?

Empire of Mexico restored to the House of Iturbide (pretender Maximilian von Götzen-Iturbide) before 3rd March 2034.

Will "Alignment Pretraining: AI Discourse Causes Se..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "Pretraining on Aligned AI Data Dramatically R..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Will "models have some pretty funny attractor states" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Will FP8 be the primary pretraining precision for a majority of frontier models released in 2027?

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