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Prediction markets for Primary

Graham Platner and James Talarico both win their primaries?

Jan 4, 1:24 AMJun 30, 12:59 AM

80%chance

145163073

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1376

818

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67%chance

8456997

OptionVotes

NO

YES

143166

70518

Colorado Democratic Senate Primary Winner?

Mar 15, 1:46 AMJun 30, 2:46 AM

619390

OptionProbability

John Hickenlooper

Julie Gonzalez

65

35

Will Kamala Harris run in the 2028 election primary?

Jul 7, 1:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

44%chance

365283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1353

546

In 2028, will any major hospital advertise the use of AI as the primary method of diagnosis of human patients?

Mar 10, 12:37 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.91%chance

734737

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1391

1188

Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner?

Mar 15, 1:43 AMAug 4, 1:43 AM

53153

OptionProbability

Mallory McMorrow

Abdul El-Sayed

Haley Stevens

63

21

17

Will primary energy consumption in the US decrease by 2050?

Jan 26, 6:11 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35%chance

192550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1227

851

Thomas Massie wins Kentucky's 4th Republican primary in 2026?

Sep 10, 2:53 AMMay 19, 12:59 AM

65.96%chance

231789

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1238

680

Will Elon Musk successfully primary any incumbent Democrats in the next election?

Dec 21, 11:05 PMDec 29, 4:59 AM

48.8%chance

131785

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1034

986

Would keyboards still be the primary way of text inputs to a computer for a majority of kids in 2030?

Nov 21, 11:29 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

81.28%chance

381444

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1180

940

Graham Platner to win Primary and General for 2026 US Senate in Maine?

Feb 22, 9:09 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

65.67%chance

14908

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1723

666

Winner of Democratic Primary for Michigans 13th District?

Oct 7, 1:45 AMAug 4, 12:59 AM

6246

OptionProbability

Donavan McKinney (State Rep since 2023)

Shri Thanedar (Incumbent U.S. Representative)

Other

59

39

2

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