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Prediction markets for Prime Market

Will any German State Prime Minister after a 2026 election be elected with AfD support?

Dec 7, 7:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.87%chance

6345691

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16390

6101

In 2040, will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex?

Mar 15, 1:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.1%chance

8512884

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1377

1032

Will Japan have a female head of state before 2050?

Sep 8, 2:19 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

23.61%chance

319955

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1799

556

UK Prime Minister after Andy Burnham

Mar 25, 2:29 PMDec 31, 2:17 PM

309418

OptionProbability

Nigel Farage

Kemi Badenoch

Other

Wes Streeting

Angela Rayner

James Cleverly

Zack Polanski

David Lammy

Robert Jenrick

David Miliband

Tom Tugendhat

Rupert Lowe

Shabana Mahmood

Yvette Cooper

Sadiq Khan

Rachel Reeves

Ed Davey

Andy Burnham

Ed Miliband

Lucy Powell

Alistair Carns

John Healey

Keir Starmer

Suella Braverman

23

18

13

7

5

4

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

Will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex? (Excluding: sex desire)

Apr 2, 5:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60%chance

438642

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1224

780

Will the prime factors of RSA-2048 be known before 2030?

Sep 28, 3:04 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

31.77%chance

468047

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

751

Will Benjamin Netanyahu still be Prime Minister at the end of 2026?

Feb 13, 5:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62%chance

407569

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1277

783

Starmer vs Burnham decision market - will Labour win a majority in the next general election?

Jun 20, 10:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

156353

OptionProbability

**Assuming Burnham is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

**Assuming Starmer is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

29

6

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

17.74%chance

125325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1818

107

Will the prime factors of RSA-2048 be known before 2040?

Apr 11, 9:27 PMDec 31, 8:00 AM

61.07%chance

1322744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2961

959

Will the current Italian government last for the entire term of office?

Sep 4, 6:15 PMOct 22, 9:59 PM

77.05%chance

342644

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1804

207

Will Neuralink's PRIME study report any unanticipated adverse device reactions?

Jan 31, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.61%chance

17461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

596

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