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Prediction markets for Prime Market

Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?

Dec 7, 7:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.35%chance

5734209

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11596

8623

In 2040, will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex?

Mar 15, 1:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.1%chance

8512884

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1377

1032

Hipkins+Luxon+Peters all leaders on day of next election?

Dec 23, 6:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.15%chance

1211028

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4001

281

Will Japan have a female head of state before 2050?

Sep 8, 2:19 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

43.96%chance

319625

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1129

886

Will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex? (Excluding: sex desire)

Apr 2, 5:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60%chance

438642

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1224

780

UK Prime Minister after Andy Burnham

Mar 25, 2:29 PMDec 31, 2:17 PM

286926

OptionProbability

Nigel Farage

Other

Kemi Badenoch

Wes Streeting

Angela Rayner

James Cleverly

Zack Polanski

Rachel Reeves

David Lammy

Robert Jenrick

David Miliband

Keir Starmer

Tom Tugendhat

Rupert Lowe

Shabana Mahmood

Yvette Cooper

Sadiq Khan

Andy Burnham

Ed Miliband

Lucy Powell

Alistair Carns

John Healey

Suella Braverman

24

14

12

7

5

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

Starmer vs Burnham decision market - will Labour win a majority in the next general election?

Jun 20, 10:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

155892

OptionProbability

**Assuming Burnham is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

**Assuming Starmer is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

31

6

Will Benjamin Netanyahu still be Prime Minister at the end of 2026?

Feb 13, 5:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.62%chance

335596

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1267

789

Will the current Italian government last for the entire term of office?

Sep 4, 6:15 PMOct 22, 9:59 PM

75.22%chance

332594

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1754

223

Will Donald Trump have a heart attack before the end of 2028?

Jul 19, 7:54 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

29%chance

17755

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1565

639

Will UK AISI be gutted in 2026?

Jul 4, 2:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.46%chance

7711

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1711

584

Will Neuralink's PRIME study report any unanticipated adverse device reactions?

Jan 31, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.61%chance

17461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

596

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