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Prediction markets for Prime Market

Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?

Dec 7, 7:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.33%chance

2914051

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10477

9544

In 2040, will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex?

Mar 15, 1:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.1%chance

8512884

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1377

1032

Hipkins+Luxon+Peters all leaders on day of next election?

Dec 23, 6:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71%chance

1110385

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3416

72

Will Japan have a female head of state before 2050?

Sep 8, 2:19 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

40%chance

319550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

816

Will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex? (Excluding: sex desire)

Apr 2, 5:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57.33%chance

438578

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1160

825

Starmer vs Burnham decision market - will Labour win a majority in the next general election?

Jun 20, 10:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

135579

OptionProbability

**Assuming Burnham is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

**Assuming Starmer is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

31

6

Will Benjamin Netanyahu still be Prime Minister at the end of 2026?

Feb 13, 5:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.32%chance

315311

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1113

899

Will Christopher Luxon still be Prime Minister of New Zealand when the 2026 general election is held?

Feb 26, 8:10 AMNov 7, 10:59 AM

76%chance

213625

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1355

751

Will the current Italian government last for the entire term of office?

Sep 4, 6:15 PMOct 22, 9:59 PM

79.08%chance

322478

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1864

190

Will Donald Trump have a heart attack before the end of 2028?

Jul 19, 7:54 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

30.74%chance

16691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1501

666

Will Neuralink's PRIME study report any unanticipated adverse device reactions?

Jan 31, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.61%chance

17461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

596

Will Andy Burnham lead Labour to the next general election?

Jun 19, 8:41 PMAug 15, 11:59 PM

74.42%chance

5440

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1339

855

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