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Primer News

Will OpenAI achieve "very high level of confidence" in their "Superalignment" solutions by 2027-07-06?

Jul 5, 9:39 PMJul 5, 9:59 PM

3.01%chance

6937642

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4564

716

Tontine

Sep 22, 1:25 AMJan 18, 4:59 AM

3926921

OptionProbability

@Joshua

@Gabrielle

@dreev

@Lorxus

@Anthem

@jgyou aka JGY

@roma

@WilliamEhlhardt

@jcb

@brubsby (NO)

@tfae

@jskf

@bohaska

@DylanSlagh

@AlexbGoode (NO)

@AnthonyPeterson (NO)

@tiswtr (NO)

@snoozingnewt (NO)

@case (NO)

@Nikos (NO)

@Primer

@Ernie

Other

@JoshuaB (NO)

@dylanslagh [dup]

@firstuserhere (NO)

@ArkPoint (NO)

@vansh (NO)

@Charlie (NO)

@CamillePerrin (NO)

@SeraphinaNix (NO)

32

25

8

5

5

3

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Bitcoin * $150,000 * 2026?

Aug 15, 1:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

136745

OptionProbability

below - in

below - at end of

below - anytime after

always below - during

above - anytime after

above - in

above - at end of

above - by

always above - during

100

97

97

96

78

4

3

0

0

Which of the following Manifold users will rank highest in the 2026 ACX prediction contest?

Jan 19, 5:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

196479

OptionProbability

@bens

@Bayesian

@TimothyJohnson5c16

@jim

@Primer

@MRME

Other

52

27

10

4

3

3

1

Bitcoin in USD on random day in 2026, resolves to first 2 leading digits as PROB

Jan 23, 11:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.55%chance

11846

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1260

852

Will the climate change activists "Last Generation" ("Letzte Generation") be classified as a criminal organization?

Nov 25, 9:13 AMSep 9, 9:59 PM

42.54%chance

21783

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

746

German troops deployed in Ukraine by 2027?

Mar 17, 5:29 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6.56%chance

23754

OptionVotes

YES

NO

378

26

Will any reactor of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant be operational in 2028?

Jul 3, 8:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.1%chance

11427

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1259

928

Private New Year's Eve Fireworks possible in Germany?

Jul 1, 10:57 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

11420

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

100

94

83

67

Resolution criteria mandatory for Yes/No markets on 09/09/2026?

Jun 6, 6:16 AMSep 9, 9:59 PM

43.66%chance

3193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

114

88

Will an Avian Influenza Virus in Humans be Declared a PHEIC before 2030? [Metaculus]

Dec 8, 12:33 AMDec 30, 10:59 PM

54.75%chance

240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

Dalai Lama Stock

Apr 14, 1:00 AMApr 14, 3:59 AM

736

OptionProbability

YES

NO

116

105

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