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Primer News

Will OpenAI achieve "very high level of confidence" in their "Superalignment" solutions by 2027-07-06?

Jul 5, 9:39 PMJul 5, 9:59 PM

4%chance

6936642

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3564

752

Tontine

Sep 22, 1:25 AMJan 18, 4:59 AM

3926921

OptionProbability

@Joshua

@Gabrielle

@dreev

@Lorxus

@Anthem

@jgyou aka JGY

@roma

@WilliamEhlhardt

@jcb

@brubsby (NO)

@tfae

@jskf

@bohaska

@DylanSlagh

@AlexbGoode (NO)

@AnthonyPeterson (NO)

@tiswtr (NO)

@snoozingnewt (NO)

@case (NO)

@Nikos (NO)

@Primer

@Ernie

Other

@JoshuaB (NO)

@dylanslagh [dup]

@firstuserhere (NO)

@ArkPoint (NO)

@vansh (NO)

@Charlie (NO)

@CamillePerrin (NO)

@SeraphinaNix (NO)

32

25

8

5

5

3

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Which of the following Manifold users will rank highest in the 2026 ACX prediction contest?

Jan 19, 5:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

186378

OptionProbability

@bens

@Bayesian

@jim

@TimothyJohnson5c16

@Primer

@MRME

Other

42

26

15

10

3

3

1

Bitcoin * $150,000 * 2026?

Aug 15, 1:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

136027

OptionProbability

below - in

below - anytime after

below - at end of

always below - during

above - anytime after

above - in

above - at end of

above - by

always above - during

100

96

95

92

78

8

5

0

0

Will the climate change activists "Last Generation" ("Letzte Generation") be classified as a criminal organization?

Nov 25, 9:13 AMSep 9, 9:59 PM

45%chance

21745

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1178

697

German troops deployed in Ukraine by 2027?

Mar 17, 5:29 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

12.39%chance

21627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

266

38

Bitcoin in USD on random day in 2026, resolves to first 2 leading digits as PROB

Jan 23, 11:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.2%chance

10515

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1181

890

Will any reactor of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant be operational in 2028?

Jul 3, 8:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.1%chance

11427

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1259

928

Resolution criteria mandatory for Yes/No markets on 06/06/2026?

Mar 4, 6:33 AMJun 6, 12:00 AM

16%chance

4129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

229

44

Will an Avian Influenza Virus in Humans be Declared a PHEIC before 2030? [Metaculus]

Dec 8, 12:33 AMDec 30, 10:59 PM

54.75%chance

240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

Dalai Lama Stock

Apr 14, 1:00 AMApr 14, 3:59 AM

736

OptionProbability

YES

NO

116

105

Sucking on Tongue Stock

Apr 14, 1:01 AMApr 14, 3:59 AM

331

OptionProbability

NO

YES

95

85

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