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Primer News

Will OpenAI achieve "very high level of confidence" in their "Superalignment" solutions by 2027-07-06?

Jul 5, 9:39 PMJul 5, 9:59 PM

4%chance

6936642

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3564

752

Tontine

Sep 22, 1:25 AMJan 18, 4:59 AM

3620651

OptionProbability

@Joshua

@Gabrielle

@dreev

@jskf

@Lorxus

@roma

@Anthem

@WilliamEhlhardt

@case

@jcb

@jgyou aka JGY

@Primer

@brubsby (NO)

@tfae

@bohaska

@DylanSlagh

@firstuserhere (NO)

@ArkPoint

@AlexbGoode

@AnthonyPeterson

@Charlie

@CamillePerrin (NO)

@SeraphinaNix

@tiswtr

@snoozingnewt

@Nikos

@Ernie

Other

@JoshuaB

@dylanslagh [dup]

@vansh

30

13

11

6

5

4

4

4

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

Which of the following Manifold users will rank highest in the ACX 2025 prediction contest?

Feb 1, 7:26 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1917641

OptionProbability

Bayesian (https://manifold.markets/Bayesian)

nikki (https://manifold.markets/nikki)

jim (https://manifold.markets/jim)

Primer (https://manifold.markets/Primer)

Timothy Johnson (https://manifold.markets/TimothyJohnson5c16)

Other

46

31

12

7

3

0

German troops deployed in Ukraine in 2025?

Feb 20, 2:37 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

5.47%chance

27836

OptionVotes

YES

NO

416

24

What's the probability of death in Snake Eyes Variant Y?

Sep 8, 6:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.73%chance

8680

OptionVotes

YES

NO

732

111

Will the climate change activists "Last Generation" ("Letzte Generation") be classified as a criminal organization?

Nov 25, 9:13 AMSep 9, 9:59 PM

47.68%chance

18605

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1219

648

Bitcoin * $150,000 * 2026?

Aug 15, 1:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8457

OptionProbability

below - in

above - anytime after

below - at end of

above - in

below - anytime after

always below - during

above - at end of

above - by

always above - during

74

62

58

54

50

46

42

33

26

Will any reactor of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant be operational in 2028?

Jul 3, 8:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88%chance

10417

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1249

930

Resolution criteria mandatory for Yes/No markets on 09/09/2025?

Jun 6, 11:33 PMSep 8, 11:59 PM

4.23%chance

6390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

476

21

Will "A primer on the current state of longevity re..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Aug 27, 7:57 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

17.9%chance

293

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1042

778

Will an Avian Influenza Virus in Humans be Declared a PHEIC before 2030? [Metaculus]

Dec 8, 12:33 AMDec 30, 10:59 PM

54.75%chance

240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

Will "o1: A Technical Primer" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Dec 10, 5:00 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

16.9%chance

213

OptionVotes

NO

YES

103

83

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