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Prediction markets for Primer

Will OpenAI achieve "very high level of confidence" in their "Superalignment" solutions by 2027-07-06?

Jul 5, 9:39 PMJul 5, 9:59 PM

4%chance

6936642

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3564

752

Tontine

Sep 22, 1:25 AMJan 18, 4:59 AM

3621151

OptionProbability

@Joshua

@Gabrielle

@dreev

@Lorxus

@roma

@Anthem

@WilliamEhlhardt

@case

@jcb

@jskf

@jgyou aka JGY

@Primer

@brubsby (NO)

@tfae

@bohaska

@DylanSlagh

@firstuserhere (NO)

@ArkPoint

@AlexbGoode

@AnthonyPeterson

@Charlie

@CamillePerrin (NO)

@SeraphinaNix

@tiswtr

@snoozingnewt

@Nikos

@Ernie

Other

@JoshuaB

@dylanslagh [dup]

@vansh

31

14

11

6

4

4

4

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

Which of the following Manifold users will rank highest in the ACX 2025 prediction contest?

Feb 1, 7:26 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2119269

OptionProbability

Bayesian (https://manifold.markets/Bayesian)

nikki (https://manifold.markets/nikki)

jim (https://manifold.markets/jim)

Primer (https://manifold.markets/Primer)

Timothy Johnson (https://manifold.markets/TimothyJohnson5c16)

Other

39

35

15

7

3

1

German troops deployed in Ukraine in 2025?

Feb 20, 2:37 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

2.49%chance

301046

OptionVotes

YES

NO

626

16

What's the probability of death in Snake Eyes Variant Y?

Sep 8, 6:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.73%chance

8680

OptionVotes

YES

NO

732

111

Will the climate change activists "Last Generation" ("Letzte Generation") be classified as a criminal organization?

Nov 25, 9:13 AMSep 9, 9:59 PM

47.68%chance

18605

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1219

648

Will any reactor of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant be operational in 2028?

Jul 3, 8:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88%chance

10417

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1249

930

German troops deployed in Ukraine by 2027?

Mar 17, 5:29 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

25%chance

13276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

58

Will "A primer on the current state of longevity re..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Aug 27, 7:57 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

17.9%chance

293

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1042

778

Supreme Court ruling on 3,50€ file copying fee - Will B. win the Federal Administrative Court case?

Dec 19, 10:14 PMJan 25, 10:59 PM

64.35%chance

365

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

77

Sucking on Tongue Stock

Apr 14, 1:01 AMApr 14, 3:59 AM

331

OptionProbability

NO

YES

95

85

Will "o1: A Technical Primer" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Dec 10, 5:00 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

17.89%chance

214

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

78

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