Primitive News

Will it become public that Monero has been compromised currently before 2030?

Jun 27, 1:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.71%chance

179071

OptionVotes

YES

1794

558

Has OpenAI made a cryptanalytic breakthrough?

Oct 8, 7:45 PMNov 7, 11:59 PM

4.29%chance

256266

OptionVotes

YES

4723

212

Will communications transmission tech based on quantum entanglement exist and be in use before 2030?

Jun 26, 9:07 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.86%chance

426248

OptionVotes

YES

1993

853

When will brain upload be demonstrated for an animal?

Feb 7, 8:52 AMJan 2, 10:59 PM

513171

OptionProbability

Before 2050

Before 2046

Before 2042

Before 2038

Before 2034

Before 2029

Before 2030

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2026

In 2050, we still won't be able to exactly duplicate a strawberry.

Feb 23, 7:50 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

49.72%chance

281532

OptionVotes

YES

1274

340

Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028?

Mar 26, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

71.03%chance

91028

OptionVotes

YES

1566

639

Is Artin's conjecture on primitive roots true?

Oct 19, 2:06 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

94.03%chance

5379

OptionVotes

YES

310

Will AI break blockchain mechanism before EOY ?

Oct 15, 5:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.88%chance

7298

OptionVotes

YES

177

San Mateo science fiction short story reading group predictions

Jan 10, 3:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3171

OptionProbability

I recently started putting up flyers around. Will at least one person join discord cause of these, directly, not because of any other reason, within a week? By eod Jan 16

I submitted a flyer to the library admin office for approval. Will it be up by Thursday noon?

Will I hear from the library by Jan 16 via email or other, or flyer is up?

Will we have 10+ people this year at a meeting?

Well at least five people wrote and submit stories for the March event?

Will at least 1 member besides me join manifest 2024? There are some leads

Will we have 11+ at a meeting by mid 2025?

Will at least 3 people read Neuromancer (in addition to me) by EOY 2024 as we plan?

By 2030 will anyone who ever was a regular member at least two times publish a novel? Self publishing okay

By 2030 will anyone who ever was a regular member at least two times win a fiction or sci-fi award?

Will we have a new author special guest by EOY 2024? (We already had Richard Ngo once!)

Will any past/future/present members excluding me be published online in a "real" magazine (not completely self-published) such as lightspeed? by mid 2026

Will Richard Ngo win a major scifi award (Hugo, Nebula, Philip K Dick, or other with prize 20k or more by mid 2031

Will someone successfully have us read, approvingly, an AI story without knowing

Will someone discovering us via flyer show up at a meeting by mid year?

Will the library deny me initially, which I'm going to push them on to find out?

Will I have to escalate the situations with legal threats to get us on the bulletin board in the San Mateo library?

Will someone else submit a flyer design which is better than my primitive one?

Will at least one person show up in person via this market or Manifold, by mid year?

Will at least two semipermanent members be found via flyers by mid year?

Will we have 20+ this year?

Will we have a meeting in a cafe or other commercial spot by mid year?

Will we meet in the library at least once?

Will two people who met at scifi date for at least a month this year?

Will I ever meet someone in person from the OTHER San Mateo sf and fantasy writing group?

100

Will transformer architectures lose their dominant position in deep learning before 2028?

Jan 20, 9:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.84%chance

6155

OptionVotes

YES

240

When will Primitive Technology on Youtube create his next useful iron item?

Apr 4, 2:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5114

OptionProbability

Aug-Dec 2025

Jan-Jun 2026

2028 or Never

Jul-Dec 2027

Jan-Jun 2027

Jul-Dec 2026

Will any widely used cryptographic primitive or algorithm be broken in the next 12 months?

Oct 21, 1:59 PMOct 21, 1:59 PM

30.76%chance

1190

OptionVotes

YES

150

Primitive News

Prediction markets for Primitive

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Prediction markets for Primitive

Will it become public that Monero has been compromised currently before 2030?

Has OpenAI made a cryptanalytic breakthrough?

Will communications transmission tech based on quantum entanglement exist and be in use before 2030?

When will brain upload be demonstrated for an animal?

In 2050, we still won't be able to exactly duplicate a strawberry.

Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028?

Is Artin's conjecture on primitive roots true?

Will AI break blockchain mechanism before EOY ?

San Mateo science fiction short story reading group predictions

Will transformer architectures lose their dominant position in deep learning before 2028?

When will Primitive Technology on Youtube create his next useful iron item?

Will any widely used cryptographic primitive or algorithm be broken in the next 12 months?

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