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Prediction markets for PRIO

Will Trump pardon Luigi Mangione prior to Jan 20, 2029?

Jan 26, 3:07 AMFeb 25, 7:59 AM

3.7%chance

4671471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

45366

5620

In November, will Manifold think that H5 bird flu was transmitting human-to-human prior to February 12th?

Feb 13, 2:36 AMNov 9, 5:59 AM

2.34%chance

115797

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5216

54

Will a movie or TV series based on a book by Brandon Sanderson be released prior to 2027?

Aug 23, 10:55 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

5.98%chance

515448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3082

100

Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 10% as measured from a prior peak?

Feb 19, 11:34 PMFeb 1, 8:00 AM

38.73%chance

161824

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1157

581

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.93%chance

131580

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1759

1287

Will the company that produces the first AGI prioritize corrigibility?

Mar 12, 8:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.58%chance

261256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1906

525

Will heart disease no longer be the leading cause of death in the US in any year prior to 2031?

Jun 27, 3:10 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

33%chance

261165

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1088

757

Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak?

Feb 19, 11:35 PMFeb 1, 8:00 AM

48.16%chance

15889

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1204

667

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2025?

Jul 11, 6:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.7%chance

2400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2198

1820

Will the majority of developed nations prioritize funding for longevity research over space exploration by 2035?

Jun 29, 5:49 AMJul 7, 4:59 AM

46.25%chance

10344

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1078

928

Will prioritizing corrigible AI produce safe results?

Mar 12, 8:36 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44.79%chance

4170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1110

901

Detroit LVT: Will newly city-owned properties experience less development than they have in prior years? (2028)

Oct 13, 3:23 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

60.6%chance

343

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1207

1177

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