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Will Trump pardon Luigi Mangione prior to Jan 20, 2029?

Jan 26, 3:07 AMFeb 22, 7:59 AM

1.09%chance

58154920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

117790

4179

Will there be at least one year by 2030 (incl.) in which real US GDP grows by >=10% as measured from a prior peak?

Apr 14, 8:06 PMMar 31, 10:59 PM

30.21%chance

1712057

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1520

658

Will a movie or TV series based on a book by Brandon Sanderson be released prior to 2027?

Aug 23, 10:55 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

1%chance

5511887

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5736

30

Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 10% as measured from a prior peak?

Feb 19, 11:34 PMFeb 1, 8:00 AM

59%chance

222611

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1411

311

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.79%chance

141630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1809

1260

Will the company that produces the first AGI prioritize corrigibility?

Mar 12, 8:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16.42%chance

271606

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2256

443

Will heart disease no longer be the leading cause of death in the US in any year prior to 2031?

Jun 27, 3:10 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

28.44%chance

271234

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

888

Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak?

Feb 19, 11:35 PMFeb 1, 8:00 AM

54%chance

171175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1304

572

Will the majority of developed nations prioritize funding for longevity research over space exploration by 2035?

Jun 29, 5:49 AMJul 7, 4:59 AM

39.88%chance

10494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1228

814

Will a spacecraft achieve a stable orbit around a star other than the Sun prior to 2200?

Oct 7, 4:32 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

28.48%chance

11202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1080

951

Will prioritizing corrigible AI produce safe results?

Mar 12, 8:36 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44.79%chance

4170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1110

901

Detroit LVT: Will newly city-owned properties experience less development than they have in prior years? (2028)

Oct 13, 3:23 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

60.6%chance

343

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1207

1177

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