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Will a movie or TV series based on a book by Brandon Sanderson be released prior to 2027?

Aug 23, 10:55 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

1%chance

549186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5736

30

Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 10% as measured from a prior peak?

Feb 19, 11:34 PMFeb 1, 8:00 AM

52%chance

192108

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1318

386

Does any pathogen (virus, bacteria, prion, etc.) cause Alzheimer's disease?

Feb 9, 1:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.17%chance

261917

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

916

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.79%chance

141630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1809

1260

Will the company that produces the first AGI prioritize corrigibility?

Mar 12, 8:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16.42%chance

271606

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2256

443

Will heart disease no longer be the leading cause of death in the US in any year prior to 2031?

Jun 27, 3:10 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

28.44%chance

271234

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

888

Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak?

Feb 19, 11:35 PMFeb 1, 8:00 AM

43%chance

16987

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1122

765

After the 2026 midterms, will I feel like US culture has trended towards greater wokeness in the 2 years prior?

Jan 3, 8:19 AMNov 5, 7:59 AM

34.05%chance

10810

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1392

718

Will the majority of developed nations prioritize funding for longevity research over space exploration by 2035?

Jun 29, 5:49 AMJul 7, 4:59 AM

39.88%chance

10494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1228

814

Will a spacecraft achieve a stable orbit around a star other than the Sun prior to 2200?

Oct 7, 4:32 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

28.48%chance

11202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1080

951

Will prioritizing corrigible AI produce safe results?

Mar 12, 8:36 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44.79%chance

4170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1110

901

Detroit LVT: Will newly city-owned properties experience less development than they have in prior years? (2028)

Oct 13, 3:23 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

60.6%chance

343

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1207

1177

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