Priority News

Mana Shop - What digital goods will it contain in 2026?

Jan 15, 7:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4335981

OptionProbability

“Manifold pro” or similar status w perks

Profile hats

Profile pic borders

Profile Hovercard borders

Leverage (loan) rate increases

Bonus streak forgiveness / freezes

Coolfold's Jester hat

Top hat

Halo

Devil horns

Cat ears

Crystal ball icon on pfp

Wizard hat

Fire-themed hovercard (requires Streak >100days to buy)

Stonks arrow (over pfp)

Bull/Bear horns/ears

Monocle

Cosmetic badges

Some kind of Whale design on pfp, or on hovercard, gated behind 1m all-time volume

Additional site themes

Consumable market decorations

A unique hat that can only be owned by one person but can be stolen

Profile page layout customization

trader bonus multiplier

Spoiler mode (hide current probabilities)

Create a clan / community / group

MtG mana color symbols

Consumable item that lets you highlight a comment

Access to detailed Predictle stats (eg of past games, or of other players' performance)

Discord perks

Boost discounts (limited purchase, e.g. 2/ mo)

Custom league cohort packs for inviting friends to compete

Extra predictle sets

Mod queue priority status

100

Will Chalco's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

76.13%chance

1611407

OptionVotes

YES

25950

9022

Will Vic NEM 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$105/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

35.43%chance

66790

OptionVotes

YES

20520

10809

Will Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 3.4 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

49.68%chance

42140

OptionVotes

YES

10064

9936

What donation-accepting entity (e.g., charity) would it be morally best to transfer $20 under the coherent extrapolation of my (Aaron Bergman's) values, all things considered?

Feb 6, 4:25 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

251287

OptionProbability

Rethink Priorities

Arthropoda Foundation

Other

Shrimp Welfare Initiative

Animal Welfare Fund (EA Funds)

Long-term Future Fund

Machine Intelligence Research Institute

Insect Welfare Research Society

Center on Long-Term Risk

Lightcone Infrastructure

Fish Welfare Initiative

Do not donate (ie Aaron keeps the $20 - maybe but not explicitly to donate later)

Center for Reducing Suffering

The Humane League

Center for the Governance of AI

Holly Elmore / Pause AI

Rethink Probabilities

GiveWell

Patient Philanthropy Fund

NYU Mind, Ethics, and Policy Program

Sentience Institute

Centre for Long-Term Resilience

Centre for Effective Altruism

Qualia Research Institute

Longview Emerging Challenges Fund

ALLFED

[snigus] Will I convince Destiny that managing AI-risk should be in top 2 policy priority of his?

May 31, 10:19 PMJun 30, 10:16 PM

25.4%chance

16749

OptionVotes

YES

171

In Jan 2027, Risks from Artificial Intelligence (or similar) will be on 80,000 hours top priority list

May 3, 4:23 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

93.89%chance

8572

OptionVotes

YES

340

109

In Jan 2027, Catastrophic Pandemics (or similar) will be on 80,000 hours top priority list

May 3, 4:24 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

80.99%chance

10323

OptionVotes

YES

271

153

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2027?

Jun 30, 9:06 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4240

OptionProbability

Yes

Other

Will Juvenile Life Without Parole (JLWOP) sentencing become a major political priority for either party before 2030?

Mar 10, 3:37 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

27.91%chance

7216

OptionVotes

YES

361

149

Will the Global Priorities Institute still exist in 2030 ?

Apr 17, 7:16 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

60.54%chance

365

OptionVotes

YES

167

117

In Jan 2027, Building Effective Altruism (or similar) will be on 80,000 hours top priority list

May 3, 4:24 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

68.61%chance

436

OptionVotes

YES

166

107

Priority News

Prediction markets for Priority

Prediction markets for Priority

Prediction markets for Priority

Mana Shop - What digital goods will it contain in 2026?

Will Chalco's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?

Will Vic NEM 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$105/MWh?

Will Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 3.4 million tonnes?

What donation-accepting entity (e.g., charity) would it be morally best to transfer $20 under the coherent extrapolation of my (Aaron Bergman's) values, all things considered?

[snigus] Will I convince Destiny that managing AI-risk should be in top 2 policy priority of his?

In Jan 2027, Risks from Artificial Intelligence (or similar) will be on 80,000 hours top priority list

In Jan 2027, Catastrophic Pandemics (or similar) will be on 80,000 hours top priority list

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2027?

Will Juvenile Life Without Parole (JLWOP) sentencing become a major political priority for either party before 2030?

Will the Global Priorities Institute still exist in 2030 ?

In Jan 2027, Building Effective Altruism (or similar) will be on 80,000 hours top priority list

Latest stories