Priority News

Mana Shop - What digital goods will it contain in 2026?

Jan 15, 7:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3526855

OptionProbability

“Manifold pro” or similar status w perks

Profile hats

Profile pic borders

Profile Hovercard borders

Leverage (loan) rate increases

Bonus streak forgiveness / freezes

Coolfold's Jester hat

Top hat

Crystal ball icon on pfp

Wizard hat

Cat ears

Stonks arrow (over pfp)

Monocle

Halo

Devil horns

Bull/Bear horns/ears

Cosmetic badges

Some kind of Whale design on pfp, or on hovercard, gated behind 1m all-time volume

Consumable market decorations

Additional site themes

A unique hat that can only be owned by one person but can be stolen

Fire-themed hovercard (requires Streak >100days to buy)

Profile page layout customization

Spoiler mode (hide current probabilities)

trader bonus multiplier

MtG mana color symbols

Create a clan / community / group

Consumable item that lets you highlight a comment

Custom league cohort packs for inviting friends to compete

Extra predictle sets

Access to detailed Predictle stats (eg of past games, or of other players' performance)

Boost discounts (limited purchase, e.g. 2/ mo)

Discord perks

Mod queue priority status

100

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

Feb 7, 3:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.46%chance

1620038

OptionVotes

YES

29132

4187

Will LFP batteries account for more than 65% of global electric vehicle battery production (by GWh) in 2026?

Mar 21, 2:23 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

35.23%chance

54582

OptionVotes

YES

13560

7375

Will LME cobalt metal official cash settlement price exceed 55 USD per kg on June 30, 2026?

Mar 21, 2:23 AMJun 30, 4:00 AM

59.28%chance

63015

OptionVotes

YES

12066

8288

Will Indonesia's cobalt mine production exceed 55,000 tonnes in 2026?

Mar 21, 2:23 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

54.16%chance

61919

OptionVotes

YES

10869

9200

What donation-accepting entity (e.g., charity) would it be morally best to transfer $20 under the coherent extrapolation of my (Aaron Bergman's) values, all things considered?

Feb 6, 4:25 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

251287

OptionProbability

Rethink Priorities

Arthropoda Foundation

Other

Shrimp Welfare Initiative

Animal Welfare Fund (EA Funds)

Long-term Future Fund

Machine Intelligence Research Institute

Insect Welfare Research Society

Center on Long-Term Risk

Lightcone Infrastructure

Fish Welfare Initiative

Do not donate (ie Aaron keeps the $20 - maybe but not explicitly to donate later)

Center for Reducing Suffering

The Humane League

Center for the Governance of AI

Holly Elmore / Pause AI

Rethink Probabilities

GiveWell

Patient Philanthropy Fund

NYU Mind, Ethics, and Policy Program

Sentience Institute

Centre for Long-Term Resilience

Centre for Effective Altruism

Qualia Research Institute

Longview Emerging Challenges Fund

ALLFED

In Jan 2027, Risks from Artificial Intelligence (or similar) will be on 80,000 hours top priority list

May 3, 4:23 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

93.89%chance

8572

OptionVotes

YES

340

109

In Jan 2027, Catastrophic Pandemics (or similar) will be on 80,000 hours top priority list

May 3, 4:24 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

80.99%chance

10323

OptionVotes

YES

271

153

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2027?

Jun 30, 9:06 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4240

OptionProbability

Yes

Other

Will Juvenile Life Without Parole (JLWOP) sentencing become a major political priority for either party before 2030?

Mar 10, 3:37 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

27.91%chance

7216

OptionVotes

YES

361

149

Will the Global Priorities Institute still exist in 2030 ?

Apr 17, 7:16 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

60.54%chance

365

OptionVotes

YES

167

117

In Jan 2027, Building Effective Altruism (or similar) will be on 80,000 hours top priority list

May 3, 4:24 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

68.61%chance

436

OptionVotes

YES

166

107

Priority News

Prediction markets for Priority

Prediction markets for Priority

Prediction markets for Priority

Mana Shop - What digital goods will it contain in 2026?

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

Will LFP batteries account for more than 65% of global electric vehicle battery production (by GWh) in 2026?

Will LME cobalt metal official cash settlement price exceed 55 USD per kg on June 30, 2026?

Will Indonesia's cobalt mine production exceed 55,000 tonnes in 2026?

What donation-accepting entity (e.g., charity) would it be morally best to transfer $20 under the coherent extrapolation of my (Aaron Bergman's) values, all things considered?

In Jan 2027, Risks from Artificial Intelligence (or similar) will be on 80,000 hours top priority list

In Jan 2027, Catastrophic Pandemics (or similar) will be on 80,000 hours top priority list

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2027?

Will Juvenile Life Without Parole (JLWOP) sentencing become a major political priority for either party before 2030?

Will the Global Priorities Institute still exist in 2030 ?

In Jan 2027, Building Effective Altruism (or similar) will be on 80,000 hours top priority list

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