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Prediction markets for Private

Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029?

Jan 8, 2:44 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

47.42%chance

2538259

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10722

9307

Will the price of private education in Japan be cheaper in 5 years?

Apr 2, 10:44 AMJul 1, 2:59 PM

58.14%chance

159781

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11784

8486

Will Michael Nielsen agree by 2030 that private-only funding for science significantly improves the status quo?

Feb 5, 11:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11%chance

244158

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1471

904

Will any of Petrobras, Banco do Brasil or Caixa Economica Federal be privatized until EOY 2026?

Aug 25, 9:21 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

4.49%chance

93621

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4611

217

Will the USPS be privatized by the end of Trump's term as president?

Dec 14, 5:30 PMJan 22, 4:59 AM

33.47%chance

333393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1432

721

Will private astronauts land on the moon within 5 years of NASA astronauts or earlier?

Sep 3, 4:53 PMJan 10, 11:59 PM

72.34%chance

473277

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1587

615

Will a cyber attack by a top 10 GDP nation exposing mass private civilian data occur before 2028?

Mar 15, 4:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

52.67%chance

241663

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

995

Will the US Postal Service be officially privatized by the end of 2026?

Dec 18, 4:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.8%chance

221180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

445

22

Will Apple provide private user data to the UK government before the end of 2027?

Feb 22, 3:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.55%chance

5697

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

952

Will the United States Postal Service be Privatized before the end of 2032?

Dec 17, 2:34 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.02%chance

13534

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1112

1055

What will be the highest score on the SWE-bench pro private set before 2027?

Jan 17, 5:06 PMJan 18, 5:59 AM

3228

OptionProbability

95 - 100%

83 - 94%

23 - 34%

35 - 46%

47 - 58%

59 - 70%

71 - 82%

Below 23%

42

33

5

5

5

5

5

2

Will anyone claim a $250k vulnerability bounty from Apple's Private Cloud Compute Virtual Research Environment by 2028?

Oct 25, 1:11 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.1%chance

2102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

998

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