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Prediction markets for Private

Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029?

Jan 8, 2:44 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

61.49%chance

2133381

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12451

8103

Will Michael Nielsen agree by 2030 that private-only funding for science significantly improves the status quo?

Feb 5, 11:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.08%chance

233995

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1347

920

Will private astronauts land on the moon within 5 years of NASA astronauts or earlier?

Sep 3, 4:53 PMJan 10, 11:59 PM

72.41%chance

463276

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1590

614

Will the USPS be privatized by the end of Trump's term as president?

Dec 14, 5:30 PMJan 22, 4:59 AM

33.17%chance

303193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1442

716

Will any of Petrobras, Banco do Brasil or Caixa Economica Federal be privatized until EOY 2026?

Aug 25, 9:21 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

9.94%chance

62020

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3010

332

Will the post-April 2026 frontier models be private models / sold to corps [ThePrimeagen prediction]

Feb 2, 10:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.06%chance

61581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2395

955

Will a cyber attack by a top 10 GDP nation exposing mass private civilian data occur before 2028?

Mar 15, 4:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

77.38%chance

231145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1801

590

Private space agency buys ISS before being decommissioned

Dec 30, 3:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.81%chance

11838

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1103

387

Will Apple provide private user data to the UK government before the end of 2027?

Feb 22, 3:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.55%chance

5697

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

952

Will the United States Postal Service be Privatized before the end of 2032?

Dec 17, 2:34 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.52%chance

12484

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1114

1062

What will be the highest score on the SWE-bench pro private set before 2027?

Jan 17, 5:06 PMJan 18, 5:59 AM

2135

OptionProbability

71 - 82%

83 - 94%

59 - 70%

23 - 34%

35 - 46%

47 - 58%

95 - 100%

Below 23%

27

21

17

8

8

8

8

3

Will anyone claim a $250k vulnerability bounty from Apple's Private Cloud Compute Virtual Research Environment by 2028?

Oct 25, 1:11 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.1%chance

2102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

998

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