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Prediction markets for Private

Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029?

Jan 8, 2:44 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

57.06%chance

2235957

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11340

8865

Will Michael Nielsen agree by 2030 that private-only funding for science significantly improves the status quo?

Feb 5, 11:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.08%chance

233995

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1347

920

Will private astronauts land on the moon within 5 years of NASA astronauts or earlier?

Sep 3, 4:53 PMJan 10, 11:59 PM

72.41%chance

463276

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1590

614

Will the USPS be privatized by the end of Trump's term as president?

Dec 14, 5:30 PMJan 22, 4:59 AM

33.17%chance

303193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1442

716

Will any of Petrobras, Banco do Brasil or Caixa Economica Federal be privatized until EOY 2026?

Aug 25, 9:21 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

9.94%chance

62020

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3010

332

When will Brazil end private ownership of cartórios?

Aug 28, 12:44 PMJan 1, 4:00 AM

41390

OptionProbability

Before 2050

Before 2029

Before 2030

Before 2040

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2026

29

16

16

16

14

6

2

Will a cyber attack by a top 10 GDP nation exposing mass private civilian data occur before 2028?

Mar 15, 4:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

77.38%chance

231145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1801

590

Will Apple provide private user data to the UK government before the end of 2027?

Feb 22, 3:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.55%chance

5697

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

952

Will the United States Postal Service be Privatized before the end of 2032?

Dec 17, 2:34 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54.01%chance

12514

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1092

1078

Private New Year's Eve Fireworks possible in Germany?

Jul 1, 10:57 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

10397

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

100

94

83

62

A privately held manufacturing company will have replaced at least 50% of it's human factory workforce by:

Jan 17, 12:06 AMDec 1, 10:59 PM

4118

OptionProbability

1/1/2030

1/1/2028

1/1/2029

1/1/2025

1/1/2027

1/1/2026

1/1/2031

1/1/2032

1/1/2033

Later

Never

22

15

13

8

7

6

6

6

6

6

6

Will anyone claim a $250k vulnerability bounty from Apple's Private Cloud Compute Virtual Research Environment by 2028?

Oct 25, 1:11 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.1%chance

2102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

998

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