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Prediction markets for Private Equity

Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029?

Jan 8, 2:44 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

57.06%chance

2235957

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11340

8865

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

Feb 7, 3:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.46%chance

1620038

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29132

4187

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.04%chance

286057

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2995

334

Will Elon Musk be the richest man on earth by the end of 2026?

Mar 20, 9:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.55%chance

284393

OptionVotes

NO

YES

234

43

Will I retire this year? And how will that affect my well-being?

Feb 8, 9:44 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

263965

OptionProbability

Retire, well-being [0.6, 0.7)

Retire, well-being [0.7, 0.8)

Retire, well-being [0.5, 0.6)

Does not retire, well-being [0.5, 0.6)

Does not retire, well-being [0.6, 0.7)

Retire, well-being [0.8, 1)

Does not retire, well-being [0.4, 0.5)

Does not retire, well-being [0.7, 0.8)

Retire, well-being [0.4, 0.5)

Retire, well-being [0, 0.4)

Does not retire, well-being [0, 0.4)

Does not retire, well-being [0.8, 1)

27

18

17

8

8

5

4

4

3

2

2

2

Major Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary becomes independent corporation before 2027

Oct 9, 1:04 PMDec 31, 4:01 PM

5.63%chance

101087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1541

900

Will Anthropic go public NOT via an IPO?

Dec 7, 4:27 AMJan 1, 4:24 AM

23.89%chance

8612

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1571

740

Will OpenAI go public NOT via an IPO?

Dec 7, 4:28 AMDec 7, 4:28 AM

31.34%chance

5400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1255

859

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5331

OptionProbability

Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives

Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)

Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs

Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies

Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies

55

53

51

50

28

Which acquired improv theatre will be dumped first?

Feb 11, 1:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1140

OptionProbability

iO

Second City

UCB

None, these will be the first-ever private equity acquisitions to thrive

32

32

32

3

What will be the final net IRR for Blackstone IX? (X100)

Dec 9, 8:22 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

62.86%chance

487

OptionProbability

NO

YES

395

245

Robinhood fined for OpenAI token sale before 2028?

Jul 3, 9:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.97%chance

459

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

92

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