Private Equity News

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

Feb 7, 3:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3%chance

26155752

OptionVotes

YES

60647

2307

Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029?

Jan 8, 2:44 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

47.42%chance

2538259

OptionVotes

YES

10722

9307

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.29%chance

6420347

OptionVotes

YES

1846

542

Will Anthropic go public NOT via an IPO?

Dec 7, 4:27 AMJan 1, 4:24 AM

3.28%chance

217171

OptionVotes

YES

5973

304

Will OpenAI go public NOT via an IPO?

Dec 7, 4:28 AMDec 7, 4:28 AM

7.23%chance

132771

OptionVotes

YES

3626

424

Major Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary becomes independent corporation before 2027

Oct 9, 1:04 PMDec 31, 4:01 PM

5.63%chance

101087

OptionVotes

YES

1541

900

Will Databricks IPO before 2028?

Oct 1, 5:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.45%chance

131031

OptionVotes

YES

1236

809

Will a privately-held company ever become the most valuable in the world?

Oct 17, 5:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.48%chance

9459

OptionVotes

YES

210

Will Salesforce announce a sale to a major AI/tech company within 365 days of the first OpenAI or Anthropic listing?

Oct 4, 12:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2206

OptionProbability

First public listing occurs, but no qualifying acquisition announced in the window

Qualifying Salesforce acquisition announced

Neither OpenAI nor Anthropic publicly listed by December 31, 2028

Which acquired improv theatre will be dumped first?

Feb 11, 1:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1150

OptionProbability

UCB

Second City

None, these will be the first-ever private equity acquisitions to thrive

Polymarket offers perps on private equities by EOY?

May 19, 7:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.43%chance

235

OptionVotes

YES

135

Will Polymarket have perps on private equity valuations before Kalshi?

Jul 19, 3:24 PMDec 31, 4:24 PM

75%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

Private Equity News

Prediction markets for Private Equity

Prediction markets for Private Equity

Prediction markets for Private Equity

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029?

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Will Anthropic go public NOT via an IPO?

Will OpenAI go public NOT via an IPO?

Major Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary becomes independent corporation before 2027

Will Databricks IPO before 2028?

Will a privately-held company ever become the most valuable in the world?

Will Salesforce announce a sale to a major AI/tech company within 365 days of the first OpenAI or Anthropic listing?

Which acquired improv theatre will be dumped first?

Polymarket offers perps on private equities by EOY?

Will Polymarket have perps on private equity valuations before Kalshi?

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