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Prediction markets for Private Equity

Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029?

Jan 8, 2:44 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

55.14%chance

2236311

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10897

9212

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

Feb 7, 3:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.03%chance

1927975

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31877

3892

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.88%chance

4411762

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1497

669

Will Elon Musk be the richest man on earth by the end of 2026?

Mar 20, 9:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

97.81%chance

536939

OptionVotes

NO

YES

669

15

Will Anthropic go public NOT via an IPO?

Dec 7, 4:27 AMJan 1, 4:24 AM

4.58%chance

204718

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4847

349

Will I retire this year? And how will that affect my well-being?

Feb 8, 9:44 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

264008

OptionProbability

Retire, well-being [0.6, 0.7)

Retire, well-being [0.7, 0.8)

Retire, well-being [0.5, 0.6)

Does not retire, well-being [0.5, 0.6)

Does not retire, well-being [0.6, 0.7)

Retire, well-being [0.8, 1)

Does not retire, well-being [0.4, 0.5)

Does not retire, well-being [0.7, 0.8)

Retire, well-being [0.4, 0.5)

Retire, well-being [0, 0.4)

Does not retire, well-being [0, 0.4)

Does not retire, well-being [0.8, 1)

29

17

16

8

8

5

4

4

3

2

2

2

Will OpenAI go public NOT via an IPO?

Dec 7, 4:28 AMDec 7, 4:28 AM

12.11%chance

101720

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2575

532

Major Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary becomes independent corporation before 2027

Oct 9, 1:04 PMDec 31, 4:01 PM

5.63%chance

101087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1541

900

Will Bernie's 50% AI tax pass?

Jun 3, 5:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.7%chance

4426

OptionVotes

YES

NO

510

20

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5331

OptionProbability

Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives

Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)

Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs

Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies

Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies

55

53

51

50

28

Which acquired improv theatre will be dumped first?

Feb 11, 1:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1140

OptionProbability

iO

Second City

UCB

None, these will be the first-ever private equity acquisitions to thrive

32

32

32

3

Polymarket offers perps on private equities by EOY?

May 19, 7:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.43%chance

235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

135

74

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