Private Equity News

What will 23andMe’s status be on Dec 31, 2025?

Mar 29, 5:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4749768

OptionProbability

Bankrupt or liquidated (Chapter 11/7, no longer operating independently)

Acquired by another company

Taken private (bought out by founders/insiders or private equity)

Still an independent public company

Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029?

Jan 8, 2:44 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

64.94%chance

1522793

OptionVotes

YES

13424

7530

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

Feb 7, 3:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

23.42%chance

147528

OptionVotes

YES

17141

6445

Will 50%+ of the content in my work emails be written by AI by end of 2025?

Jan 8, 10:22 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17.08%chance

201296

OptionVotes

YES

2110

550

Major Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary becomes independent corporation before 2027

Oct 9, 1:04 PMDec 31, 4:01 PM

5.63%chance

101087

OptionVotes

YES

1541

900

Will the "Secondary Private Equity" group on Manifold be featured / mentioned in Secondaries Investor by 2025?

Nov 2, 6:04 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.45%chance

4787

OptionVotes

YES

927

Will Anthropic go public NOT via an IPO?

Dec 7, 4:27 AMJan 1, 4:24 AM

24.47%chance

5542

OptionVotes

YES

1542

749

Now that R/GA is an independent agency, will it embark on a new era of creativity and awards?

Mar 5, 11:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.1%chance

3402

OptionVotes

YES

1366

732

Will OpenAI go public NOT via an IPO?

Dec 7, 4:28 AMDec 7, 4:28 AM

31.34%chance

5400

OptionVotes

YES

1255

859

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5331

OptionProbability

Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives

Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)

Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs

Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies

Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies

What will be the final net IRR for Blackstone IX? (X100)

Dec 9, 8:22 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

62.86%chance

487

OptionProbability

YES

395

245

Robinhood fined for OpenAI token sale before 2028?

Jul 3, 9:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.97%chance

459

OptionVotes

YES

108

Private Equity News

Prediction markets for Private Equity

Prediction markets for Private Equity

Prediction markets for Private Equity

What will 23andMe’s status be on Dec 31, 2025?

Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029?

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

Will 50%+ of the content in my work emails be written by AI by end of 2025?

Major Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary becomes independent corporation before 2027

Will the "Secondary Private Equity" group on Manifold be featured / mentioned in Secondaries Investor by 2025?

Will Anthropic go public NOT via an IPO?

Now that R/GA is an independent agency, will it embark on a new era of creativity and awards?

Will OpenAI go public NOT via an IPO?

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

What will be the final net IRR for Blackstone IX? (X100)

Robinhood fined for OpenAI token sale before 2028?

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