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Prediction markets for Product Services

Storage devices with neural networks pre-loaded sold in major electronics retailers by end of 2035

Jan 5, 5:22 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

29.98%chance

217286

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15272

6552

Will the NWS stop providing weather forecasts before 2027?

Feb 4, 8:45 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8.59%chance

187032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5849

1061

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2040?

Aug 7, 10:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39%chance

452352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1181

481

OpenAI confirm work on a Generative Music tool by end of June 2026?

Oct 26, 6:28 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

60.33%chance

151990

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

811

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.3%chance

271379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1177

880

Iphone is no longer apples dominant product line in terms of revenue by the end of this decade?

Sep 6, 10:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

39.93%chance

15702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1080

838

Fortune 500 company attributes >10% productivity gains to AI by Q2 2026?

Aug 8, 12:43 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

62.49%chance

11656

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1291

775

If I use one of the below domains for my app, will I be happy with the choice by the end of 2026

Feb 23, 3:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3425

OptionProbability

podfactum.com

podfabrik.com

podatelier.com

61

56

54

Grasberg block cave restarts by mid-2026?

Nov 19, 3:22 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

58.52%chance

4308

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1188

842

Will Anduril release a product or service with a name that references Smash Bros by the end of 2026?

Mar 9, 4:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.04%chance

9149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

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