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Prediction markets for Product Services

Will the NWS stop providing weather forecasts before 2027?

Feb 4, 8:45 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.96%chance

219462

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7587

927

Storage devices with neural networks pre-loaded sold in major electronics retailers by end of 2035

Jan 5, 5:22 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

29.98%chance

217286

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15272

6552

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.68%chance

173564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

926

Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2040?

Aug 7, 10:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39%chance

452352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1181

481

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2043?

Aug 7, 10:23 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

55.26%chance

311499

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1281

566

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.61%chance

271389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1167

885

Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028?

Mar 26, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

71.03%chance

91028

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1566

639

If I use one of the below domains for my app, will I be happy with the choice by the end of 2026

Feb 23, 3:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4875

OptionProbability

podfactum.com

podatelier.com

podfabrik.com

69

56

54

Iphone is no longer apples dominant product line in terms of revenue by the end of this decade?

Sep 6, 10:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

39.93%chance

15702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1080

838

Will Florida PALM go live as scheduled on January 11, 2027?

May 30, 2:07 AMJan 11, 11:59 PM

40.98%chance

1200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

833

Will Anduril release a product or service with a name that references Smash Bros by the end of 2026?

Mar 9, 4:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.29%chance

10175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

63

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