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Prediction markets for Product Services

Will the NWS stop providing weather forecasts before 2027?

Feb 4, 8:45 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.34%chance

2114853

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8189

891

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.68%chance

173564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

926

Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2040?

Aug 7, 10:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39%chance

492757

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1181

481

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.71%chance

332036

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1534

660

If I use one of the below domains for my app, will I be happy with the choice by the end of 2026

Feb 23, 3:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51707

OptionProbability

podfactum.com

podatelier.com

podfabrik.com

83

56

54

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.61%chance

271389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1167

885

Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028?

Mar 26, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

71.03%chance

91028

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1566

639

Iphone is no longer apples dominant product line in terms of revenue by the end of this decade?

Sep 6, 10:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

39.93%chance

15702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1080

838

Will customer service employment fall >5% in 2026?

Oct 26, 7:08 AMApr 30, 1:59 PM

61.28%chance

11651

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1258

795

Will an ungated, fully driverless robotaxi service be available to the public in São Paulo before July 1, 2028?

Jul 15, 2:17 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

30.63%chance

4519

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1138

933

Will Florida PALM go live as scheduled on January 11, 2027?

May 30, 2:07 AMJan 11, 11:59 PM

52.22%chance

4412

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

957

Will Anduril release a product or service with a name that references Smash Bros by the end of 2026?

Mar 9, 4:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.29%chance

10175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

63

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