Production Systems News

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19543864

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

36.35%chance

177427

OptionVotes

YES

1952

602

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

3477

288

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.9%chance

194054

OptionVotes

YES

4453

1165

Should smart, ethical people go into AI rather than climate tech? (subsidized)

Oct 17, 6:41 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.7%chance

313019

OptionVotes

YES

1023

838

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.3%chance

271379

OptionVotes

YES

1177

880

Will consequential atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2040?

Apr 2, 10:01 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

45.13%chance

19957

OptionVotes

YES

1049

927

In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)

Jul 28, 1:21 PMJan 1, 2:08 PM

75.9%chance

14875

OptionProbability

YES

1795

801

When will AI autonomously build and deploys a production ML system that drives business decisions

Feb 25, 4:47 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

2343

OptionProbability

>=2032

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

YES

1059

1041

When will an AI system autonomously build and operate a production software platform serving 1,000+ active users?

Feb 28, 1:44 AMFeb 28, 1:43 AM

381

OptionProbability

Before Dec 2032

Before Dec 2031

Before Dec 2028

Before Dec 2029

Before Dec 2030

Before Jan 2028

Before Oct 2027

Before Apr 2027

Before Dec 2026

Will a Fortune 500 company publicly transition a production system to PQC by end of 2026?

Jan 19, 8:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

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Prediction markets for Production Systems

Prediction markets for Production Systems

Prediction markets for Production Systems

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Should smart, ethical people go into AI rather than climate tech? (subsidized)

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Will consequential atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2040?

In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)

When will AI autonomously build and deploys a production ML system that drives business decisions

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

When will an AI system autonomously build and operate a production software platform serving 1,000+ active users?

Will a Fortune 500 company publicly transition a production system to PQC by end of 2026?

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