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Prediction markets for Profits

Will Manifold achieve break-even profitability in 2025?

Feb 14, 4:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.59%chance

6239747

OptionVotes

YES

NO

32582

1375

Will OpenAI abandon their non-profit structure by the end of 2025?

Mar 9, 3:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.07%chance

10529408

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1138

508

Will the OpenAI Non-Profit become a major AI Safety research funder? (Announced by end of 2025)

Dec 28, 12:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.98%chance

1923681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22111

4523

Will Twitter claim to be profitable before 2027?

Jun 17, 5:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

62.99%chance

696356

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1304

767

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

OpenAI to become a for-profit by EOY?

Mar 5, 4:52 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

4%chance

205393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4899

204

Anthropic's Project Vend profitable by EOY 2025?

Jun 28, 4:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.7%chance

443626

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1372

729

Will someone do something IRL to profit on Manifold that gets news/courts coverage by 2035?

May 21, 11:25 AMMay 25, 3:59 PM

52.41%chance

181709

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1049

953

AI Warning Signs: Before 2030, will an AI system make $50M in realized profits from traditional investments and trades?

Jan 18, 7:15 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

36.69%chance

91603

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1314

761

Will non-profit funding for AI safety reach 100 billion US dollars in a year before 2030?

Nov 14, 5:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.14%chance

5562

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1274

785

Will @JonathanRay surpass 0 net all-time mana profit before 2026?

Nov 5, 8:43 PMJan 13, 5:59 AM

39.02%chance

4250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

800

Will I be on the all-time profits leaderboard by 1st July 2026?

Jul 27, 4:54 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

57.18%chance

4237

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1156

865

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