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Prediction markets for Profound

US nukes Iran in 2025?

Jun 20, 3:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.01%chance

3213336

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9882

101

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?

Jun 20, 10:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.6%chance

449209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5178

193

Will Reality Shifting be proven as a real phenomenon before 2070?

Feb 15, 9:39 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6.06%chance

233123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3255

688

Will Germany give up paper correspondence before the technological singularity happens?

May 22, 10:42 AMOct 29, 9:59 PM

18.22%chance

182717

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2119

472

Will there exist a scholarly consensus in the year 3000 affirming the existence of Jesus as a historical figure?

Jul 28, 12:31 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.75%chance

311934

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1054

967

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

Will an artificial black hole be created before 2040?

Mar 17, 2:13 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3.59%chance

10515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1461

938

Will Future Shock be a recognised medical condition?

Apr 11, 2:09 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

31.77%chance

12443

OptionVotes

YES

NO

313

224

By 2035, NFL football will introduce profound and substantial changes to protect players’ brains

Sep 25, 1:31 AMSep 23, 3:59 AM

7300

OptionProbability

All forms of head contact with or to the head be illegal

Tackling will be replaced with flags or similar

52

33

Will we develop a commercial computer to brain interface by 2028?

Aug 1, 7:24 AMJan 1, 2:59 PM

48.67%chance

13292

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1067

927

Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?

Jun 15, 12:04 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.93%chance

7176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

903

By 2035, NFL football will introduce profound and substantial changes to gameplay rules to protect players’ brains

Nov 6, 12:32 PMSep 23, 3:59 AM

37%chance

130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

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