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Prediction markets for Progress

Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage

Jan 8, 12:19 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

4137410

OptionProbability

Task 2 will be achieved (understand novels)

Task 6 will be achieved (write 10k lines of code)

Task 1 will be achieved (understand a movie)

Task 3 will be achieved (write biographies)

Task 10 will be achieved (write formally verifiable proofs)

Task 5 will be achieved (write legal briefs)

Task 4 will be achieved (video gaming)

Task 9 will be achieved (Nobel level science)

Task 8 will be achieved (write Oscar level screenplays)

Task 7 will be achieved (write Pulitzer calibre books)

Miles will win the bet

The bet will be annulled

Miles will win the bet by the end of 2026

Miles will win the bet by the end of 2025

92

90

83

80

77

74

45

30

27

24

24

23

3

1

Will Donald Trump publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?

Mar 19, 12:52 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

21%chance

617020

OptionVotes

YES

NO

525

341

Will Xi Jinping publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?

Mar 18, 11:37 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

19.67%chance

302993

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1144

928

Does hidden interpolation explain >25% of AI progress?

Dec 4, 12:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.09%chance

82651

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

870

If Trump wins, will the US government enact legislation that significantly slows down AI progress?

Mar 9, 11:00 PMNov 3, 10:59 PM

16.25%chance

222083

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1723

873

How much progress will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact make by the 2028 election?

Jul 1, 7:52 PMNov 8, 4:59 AM

19.23%chance

211854

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1121

942

How much full-speed AI R&D progress will OpenAI make in 2027?

Sep 16, 3:28 AMSep 16, 6:59 AM

81775

OptionProbability

11.01 - 12 months

10.01 - 11 months

9.01 - 10 months

8.01 - 9 months

7.01 - 8 months

0 - 2 months

2.01 - 4 months

4.01 - 5 months

5.01 - 6 months

6.01 - 7 months

23

22

16

11

7

6

4

4

4

4

Will AI progress slow down before July 2027 due to an agreement to 'pace the frontier'?

Sep 12, 3:14 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

27.62%chance

101309

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1619

618

By 2035, will the FDA approve a drug that slows the yearly progression of Alzheimer's disease by at least 50%?

Jan 14, 10:58 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

57.12%chance

8407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

866

Will AI progress surprise Metaculus?

Feb 26, 6:31 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

75.94%chance

16401

OptionVotes

YES

NO

992

966

Will any of these progressives be on the Democratic ticket in 2028

Jul 20, 5:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.49%chance

17

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

101

How much full-speed AI R&D progress will Anthropic make in 2027?

Sep 16, 3:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

0 - 2 months

2.01 - 4 months

4.01 - 5 months

5.01 - 6 months

6.01 - 7 months

7.01 - 8 months

8.01 - 9 months

9.01 - 10 months

10.01 - 11 months

11.01 - 12 months

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

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