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Prediction markets for Progress Software

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

685340

OptionProbability

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

Anthropic

OpenAI/Microsoft

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

29

27

22

8

7

5

2

0

Are we currently in an AI economic bubble?

Jun 20, 4:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.47%chance

373762

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2337

428

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87.75%chance

171910

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2681

374

How much full-speed AI R&D progress will OpenAI make in 2027?

Sep 16, 3:28 AMSep 16, 6:59 AM

91780

OptionProbability

10.01 - 11 months

11.01 - 12 months

9.01 - 10 months

8.01 - 9 months

7.01 - 8 months

0 - 2 months

2.01 - 4 months

4.01 - 5 months

5.01 - 6 months

6.01 - 7 months

22

22

16

11

7

6

4

4

4

4

Is the agent task horizon really increasing that fast on messy tasks?

Dec 4, 12:27 PMDec 5, 12:19 PM

30.6%chance

9644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1506

664

Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available?

Apr 10, 9:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96.26%chance

6447

OptionVotes

NO

YES

507

20

Software Intelligence Explosion by 2040?

Dec 7, 5:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.9%chance

9258

OptionVotes

NO

YES

188

53

Will there be a psychedelics + closed-loop TMS paper by EOY2028?

Nov 11, 11:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.64%chance

458

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

81

How much full-speed AI R&D progress will Anthropic make in 2027?

Sep 16, 3:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

0 - 2 months

2.01 - 4 months

4.01 - 5 months

5.01 - 6 months

6.01 - 7 months

7.01 - 8 months

8.01 - 9 months

9.01 - 10 months

10.01 - 11 months

11.01 - 12 months

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

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