Progress Software News

What universities will I get accepted into?

Dec 15, 10:31 PMJun 1, 11:59 PM

538670

OptionProbability

Drexel

UMD

Purdue

Georgia Tech

UC Davis

UC Irvine

UIUC

UC Berkeley

UPenn

Cornell

Carnegie Mellon University

Princeton

MIT

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

604670

OptionProbability

OpenAI/Microsoft

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

Anthropic

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

YES

1928

630

Are we currently in an AI economic bubble?

Jun 20, 4:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51%chance

261556

OptionVotes

YES

1020

980

At end of 2025, one of the top five software engineering AIs will be exclusively used by 100 or fewer tech companies

Feb 6, 3:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.68%chance

91308

OptionVotes

YES

1901

526

How much of SSA's COBOL code will DOGE successfully replace by December 31, 2025?

Mar 29, 6:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11460

OptionProbability

<50%

51-90%

91-100%

Other

Is the agent task horizon really increasing that fast on messy tasks?

Dec 4, 12:27 PMDec 5, 12:19 PM

37.55%chance

6425

OptionVotes

YES

1290

775

Software Intelligence Explosion by 2040?

Dec 7, 5:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.79%chance

597

OptionVotes

YES

108

Will there be a psychedelics + closed-loop TMS paper by EOY2028?

Nov 11, 11:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.48%chance

451

OptionVotes

YES

114

Progress Software News

Prediction markets for Progress Software

Prediction markets for Progress Software

Prediction markets for Progress Software

What universities will I get accepted into?

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Are we currently in an AI economic bubble?

At end of 2025, one of the top five software engineering AIs will be exclusively used by 100 or fewer tech companies

How much of SSA's COBOL code will DOGE successfully replace by December 31, 2025?

Is the agent task horizon really increasing that fast on messy tasks?

Software Intelligence Explosion by 2040?

Will there be a psychedelics + closed-loop TMS paper by EOY2028?

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