Progress Software News

What universities will I get accepted into?

Dec 15, 10:31 PMJun 1, 11:59 PM

6412382

OptionProbability

MIT

Purdue

Drexel

UMD

Georgia Tech

Cornell

UC Davis

Princeton

UC Irvine

UC Berkeley

UPenn

Carnegie Mellon University

UIUC

100

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

655171

OptionProbability

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

OpenAI/Microsoft

Anthropic

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

YES

1928

630

Are we currently in an AI economic bubble?

Jun 20, 4:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44%chance

292060

OptionVotes

YES

1128

886

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.96%chance

8548

OptionVotes

YES

1334

752

Is the agent task horizon really increasing that fast on messy tasks?

Dec 4, 12:27 PMDec 5, 12:19 PM

36.71%chance

8451

OptionVotes

YES

1313

762

Software Intelligence Explosion by 2040?

Dec 7, 5:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.54%chance

7187

OptionVotes

YES

138

Will there be a psychedelics + closed-loop TMS paper by EOY2028?

Nov 11, 11:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.48%chance

451

OptionVotes

YES

114

Progress Software News

Prediction markets for Progress Software

Prediction markets for Progress Software

Prediction markets for Progress Software

What universities will I get accepted into?

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Are we currently in an AI economic bubble?

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Is the agent task horizon really increasing that fast on messy tasks?

Software Intelligence Explosion by 2040?

Will there be a psychedelics + closed-loop TMS paper by EOY2028?

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