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Prediction markets for Progression Fund

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

14.56%chance

335863543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5969

3766

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.26%chance

346106670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5587

3474

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

325852

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1365

735

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Kendi/DiAngelo school of DEI widely repudiated as racist OR paranoid in USA before 2040.

Jul 13, 1:16 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

76.19%chance

191852

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

851

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

131706

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

34

33

7

5

4

4

4

4

3

3

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

28.12%chance

251306

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1669

510

New SF Bay bridge any time through 2030

Sep 4, 9:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.88%chance

141298

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2094

771

Will Virgin Galactic still exist in 2030?

Jul 3, 9:49 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

40%chance

3408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1120

910

Will cryonics or brain-emulation research get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 4:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

39.03%chance

15395

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1072

946

Will Rio Tinto RTIT Sc2O3 output for 6 months ending September 2026 exceed 3000 kg?

Mar 30, 10:02 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

41.24%chance

260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

84

When will Senegal lower their debt to GDP ratio below 100%?

Apr 21, 4:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

May-Aug 2026

Sep-Dec 2026

Jan-Apr 2027

May-Aug 2027

Sep-Dec 2027

20

20

20

20

20

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