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Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage

Jan 8, 12:19 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

3230650

OptionProbability

Task 2 will be achieved (understand novels)

Task 1 will be achieved (understand a movie)

Task 3 will be achieved (write biographies)

Task 6 will be achieved (write 10k lines of code)

Task 10 will be achieved (write formally verifiable proofs)

Task 5 will be achieved (write legal briefs)

Task 4 will be achieved (video gaming)

Task 9 will be achieved (Nobel level science)

Task 8 will be achieved (write Oscar level screenplays)

The bet will be annulled

Task 7 will be achieved (write Pulitzer calibre books)

Miles will win the bet

Miles will win the bet by the end of 2026

Miles will win the bet by the end of 2025

88

78

73

73

71

65

43

28

26

25

23

14

6

1

7. Major progress will be made on building AI systems that can themselves autonomously build better AI systems.

Dec 27, 8:18 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

79.78%chance

258443

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1987

503

Will Xi Jinping publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?

Mar 18, 11:37 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

11.65%chance

282743

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1840

804

How much progress will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact make by the 2028 election?

Jul 1, 7:52 PMNov 8, 4:59 AM

19.27%chance

201837

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1118

943

MrBeast ad progress bars still non-linear, in early 2026?

May 30, 8:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

88.12%chance

91795

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2723

367

Will development of a universal flu vaccine have made significant progress by 2026?

Dec 15, 7:32 PMDec 31, 7:00 AM

18.98%chance

311734

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2069

332

Will Joe Biden publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?

Mar 19, 12:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

17.07%chance

191646

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1234

913

Does hidden interpolation explain >25% of AI progress?

Dec 4, 12:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.64%chance

61600

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

993

By 2035, will the FDA approve a drug that slows the yearly progression of Alzheimer's disease by at least 50%?

Jan 14, 10:58 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

57.12%chance

8407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

866

Will AI progress surprise Metaculus?

Feb 26, 6:31 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

76.41%chance

15395

OptionVotes

NO

YES

986

986

If AI does not wipe us out by 2033, will there be continued progress in the AI sector?

Aug 18, 8:51 AMJan 1, 2:59 PM

78.75%chance

16325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

936

If Trump wins, will the US government enact legislation that significantly slows down AI progress?

Mar 9, 11:00 PMNov 3, 10:59 PM

23.65%chance

11163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

931

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