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Prediction markets for Progressive

Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage

Jan 8, 12:19 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

2618842

OptionProbability

Task 2 will be achieved (understand novels)

Task 1 will be achieved (understand a movie)

Task 3 will be achieved (write biographies)

Task 6 will be achieved (write 10k lines of code)

Task 10 will be achieved (write formally verifiable proofs)

Task 5 will be achieved (write legal briefs)

Task 4 will be achieved (video gaming)

Task 9 will be achieved (Nobel level science)

Task 8 will be achieved (write Oscar level screenplays)

Task 7 will be achieved (write Pulitzer calibre books)

The bet will be annulled

Miles will win the bet

Miles will win the bet by the end of 2026

Miles will win the bet by the end of 2025

86

80

80

76

72

65

55

53

51

35

31

27

10

4

7. Major progress will be made on building AI systems that can themselves autonomously build better AI systems.

Dec 27, 8:18 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

73.96%chance

203037

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1685

593

How much progress will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact make by the 2028 election?

Jul 1, 7:52 PMNov 8, 4:59 AM

19.27%chance

201837

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1118

943

Will Joe Biden publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?

Mar 19, 12:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

17.89%chance

171568

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1180

925

The EA community will have a major split/conflict between progressive and rationalist EAs before 2030.

Aug 17, 12:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.09%chance

281559

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

862

MrBeast ad progress bars still non-linear, in early 2026?

May 30, 8:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.14%chance

81465

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2393

418

Will Xi Jinping publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?

Mar 18, 11:37 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

19.64%chance

261401

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1145

928

Will development of a universal flu vaccine have made significant progress by 2026?

Dec 15, 7:32 PMDec 31, 7:00 AM

51.35%chance

28784

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1121

812

Will AI progress surprise Metaculus?

Feb 26, 6:31 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

76.57%chance

14393

OptionVotes

NO

YES

992

984

If AI does not wipe us out by 2033, will there be continued progress in the AI sector?

Aug 18, 8:51 AMJan 1, 2:59 PM

78.63%chance

15320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1004

931

By 2035, will the FDA approve a drug that slows the yearly progression of Alzheimer's disease by at least 50%?

Jan 14, 10:58 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

47.65%chance

5207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

954

If Trump wins, will the US government enact legislation that significantly slows down AI progress?

Mar 9, 11:00 PMNov 3, 10:59 PM

23.65%chance

11163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

931

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